Stanford Washington Odds
The No. 5 ranked Stanford Cardinal (4-0) will host the No. 15 ranked Washington Huskies (4-0) in a huge Pac-12 North showdown. Both teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record and each is off an impressive win last week. The Huskies dominated Arizona 31-13, while the Cardinal cruised past Washington State 55-17. Stanford had won four straight in the series prior to last year’s 13-17 upset loss at Washington. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 EST at Stanford Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinal listed as 7-point home favorites.
Why Washington Will Cover:
The Huskies have looked like one of the most improved teams in the country early on in 2013. Washington kicked things off with an impressive 38-6 win at home over a ranked Boise State team and followed that up with a 10-point win at Illinois. They added to their resume with a 18-point win over previously unbeaten Arizona.
The Huskies rank 5th in the country in total offense with an average of 574.1 total yards per game and are 28th in scoring at 39.8 ppg. They have done so with a very balanced attack. Washington is 11th in passing offense (288.8 ypg) and 32nd in passing offense (285.3 ypg). This is quite a big difference from last year, when the Huskies managed just 24.0 ppg on 355 yards of total offense. One of the big reasons for the turnaround is a healthy offensive line. That front five of Washington is a big reason why the Huskies have a shot at pulling off the huge road upset, as they can match the physical style of play of Stanford’s defense.
Washington has also looked very strong defensively this year. The Huskies rank 4th in scoring defense (10.8 ppg) and 14th in total defense (288.8 ypg). The stop unit held Stanford to just 238 yards of offense in last year’s upset win at home. While they might not be as strong on the road, they should be able to keep the Cardinal in check. Stanford has played some quality opponents, but this is without question the best defense they have faced in 2013.
There’s a solid system favoring the Huskies to cover. Road teams who feature an excellent offense – scoring 35 or more points/game, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 60-29 (67.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Road teams who feature an excellent offense – scoring 35 or more points/game, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 60-29 (67.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
In a game where touchdowns figure to be hard to come by, there certainly seems to be a lot of value on the Huskies getting a touchdown. Not only is Washington capable of keeping it close, but there’s a realistic shot they win this game outright. Washington is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Stanford on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite.
Why Stanford Will Cover:
The Cardinal weren’t as dominant as people would have liked to see in their first two games of the season against San Jose State and Army, but they have more than made up for it with their two conference wins over Arizona State and Washington State. Stanford would end up beating the Sun Devils by a final of just 42-28, but the final is a bit misleading as they had a 39-7 edge going into the 4th quarter.
Stanford’s most recent 55-7 win over Washington State has the Cardinal falling into a favorable system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 67-33 (67%) ATS following a victory of at least 35 points over the last 10 seasons.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 67-33 (67%) ATS following a victory of at least 35 points over the last 10 seasons.
One of the biggest reasons favoring the Cardinal in this matchup is that it’s being played at Stanford Stadium. The Cardinal are a dominant 25-2 at home over the last four seasons, including a perfect 7-0 mark in 2012. Washington on the other hand is just 6-21 on the road over the last five years. Last season they played two ranked opponents on the road in LSU and Oregon and were outscored in those two games 93-24. Most importantly the Huskies are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record.
One of the big concerns I have with Washington is they have had some trouble against the run, but because they have been able to build big leads against their opponents it hasn’t came back to bite them just yet. As much as Boise State struggled to move the football, they put up 171 yards on the ground with 4.1 yards/carry. Illinois, who features a pass-first offense had 136 yards with their top back going for 58 yards on 13 carries (4.5 ypc). Arizona had 199 yards with a 4.1 average. It’s no secret Stanford loves to run the football. The Cardinal come in ranked 30th in the country with an average of 219.5 ypg. I look for the Cardinal to impose their will behind a strong offensive line and really ware down the Huskies defense.
Early Lean – Stanford -7