Bengals Steelers Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) will host the Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) in a AFC North showdown on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Heinz Field and will be televised nationally on NBC. This is the second meeting between these two team. Cincinnati won 20-10 at home back in Week 2 on Monday Night Football. Oddsmakers currently have the Bengals listed as a 3-point road favorites with the total set at 41 points.
Why Cincinnati Will Cover:
The Bengals come in off an impressive 42-28 home win over the Colts this past Sunday. Cincinnati has won three straight and are just a game-back of the Patriots for the No. 2 seed in the AFC, yet no one really ever seems to want to give this team any credit. The Bengals for the most part have been flying under the radar all season. This team isn’t far from having the No. 1 seed. Three of the Bengals four losses have come by a field goal or less, including two in overtime.
While Cincinnati won the first meeting with Pittsburgh by 10-points, that score could have been even more lopsided. The Bengals had a 407 to 278 edge in total yards, a 22-14 advantage in first downs and were +2 in the turnover department. The Bengals proved to themselves they can win in Pittsburgh last year and it’s not like the Steelers have a whole lot to play for at this point. While Pittsburgh is technically still alive, their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none.
The Bengals had some trouble with turnovers prior to last week’s game against Indianapolis, but were able to take care of the football. That sets up a solid system for Cincinnati. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after a game where they committed no turnovers are 72-41 (63.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Bengals have also responded well off a big win. They are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after leading their previous contest by 14 or more points at the half and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit win.
Cincinnati is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after leading their previous contest by 14 or more points at the half and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit win.
Why Pittsburgh Will Cover:
The Steelers come into this game off a disappointing 28-34 home loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh took a 28-24 lead early in the 4th quarter, but allowed 10 points in the final 3 minutes to come away with a season defining loss. As bad as that defeat may appear, head coach Mike Tomlin is not going to let his player quit, especially not at home against a division rival in a nationally televised game. Pittsburgh will come to play in this matchup and it’s hard to not like them at home getting a field goal. Pittsburgh has won four of six at home over the Bengals and if they lose it usually comes down to a field goal.
Revenge is a special motivator and there’s a solid system supporting a play on Pittsburgh due to that early loss to the Bengals in Week 2. Home teams off an upset loss as a favorite in a game where they are revenging an earlier loss are 165-103 (61.6%) ATS since 1983.
Home teams off an upset loss as a favorite in a game where they are revenging an earlier loss are 165-103 (61.6%) ATS since 1983.
You could make a pretty strong argument that the Bengals should not be favored Cincinnati is just 2-4 on the road this season and each of their two wins have come by just 3-points. It feels like a bit of an overreaction to last week’s results. Adding to this is the fact that road favorites who have won between 60-75% of their games and have covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 games and are just 85-136 (38.5%) ATS since 1983.
Early Lean – Steelers +3