Tennessee Football Predictions

The Tennessee Volunteers have had a difficult time getting back in the thick of things in the SEC. The Volunteers have finished with an overall record of 5-7 in each of the last 3 years and have had just one winning season since they went 10-4 way back in 2007.

Last year was the first year under head coach Butch Jones and while the record remained the same there were some positives to build on. The Volunteers won multiple conference games (2-6) for the first time in three seasons and weren’t far from going .500 with a couple of close losses against Georgia (31-34) and Vanderbilt (10-14).

Last Season
SEC (East)
ATS Record
Points For
Points Against
2014 Tennessee Volunteers Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
8/31 Utah State
9/6 Arkansas State
9/13 @ Oklahoma
9/27 @ Georgia
10/4 Florida
10/11 Chattanooga
10/18 @ Ole Miss
10/25 Alabama
11/1 @ South Carolina
11/15 Kentucky
11/22 Missouri
11/29 @ Vanderbilt
Estimated Wins: 4.92

Unfortunately for Tennessee, improving in 2014 will not be easy. The Volunteers return just 10 starters (5 offense, 5 defense) from last year and have some major rebuilding to do on both the offensive and defensive lines, where they don’t have a single starter coming back.

The good news for the Volunteers is that they do have some experience coming back at quarterback and Jones just brought in the 5th best recruiting class in the country. A lot of the players that were left over when Jones took the job, didn’t exactly fit his system, so there is reason to believe this team will be better on both sides of the ball in year two. It’s only a matter of time before this team plays up to their talent and contends for a division title.

The problem facing Tennessee is that even if they put out a better product on the field, the schedule is going to make it difficult for this team to see a sizable jump in their win total. The Volunteers draw both Ole Miss and Alabama from the SEC West and have to go on the road to face the Rebels and host the Crimson Tide. Tennessee also has to play both Georgia and South Carolina away from home. There’s a good chance the Volunteers will be sitting at 0-5 inside the conference before finally getting to some winnable games down the stretch.

Regular Season Win Total
SEC Championship Odds
National Championship Odds
75 to 1
225 to 1 
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Season Predictions

The fact that the Volunteers have failed to make a bowl game in each of the last 3-years and have just 10 starters coming back, it’s no surprise that oddsmakers have set their season win total at just 5.5-games. While I think Tennessee is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country, there’s not a ton of value on betting the OVER 5.5 on their win total. I do have Tennessee winning their final three games of the season to finish 6-6, so if I had to pick one side or the other, I would take the OVER.

I personally would rather save my win total bets for teams where I see more than 1/2-game deciding the outcome. With that said, that doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made on the Volunteers in 2014. I foresee Tennessee being a great team to back against the spread. Unlike other teams who may be undervalued early and not so much later in the season once they start racking up victories, the Volunteers should continue to show great value on a weekly basis because of the fact that they aren’t going to win a ton of games.

2014 Projections
SEC (East)
SEC Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
OVER 5.5
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