Texans Bears Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The Chicago Bears (7-1) host the Houston Texans (7-1) Sunday Night in the premier matchup of the week. Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as a one-point favorite and have set the total at 41.5.
Why Chicago Covers
The Bears have won six in a row and are 4-2 against the spread in these games. These victories have come by an average of 18.2 points. Chicago is also a perfect 4-0 at home where it has won by an average of 11 points.
The Bears’ only defeat is a 23-10 road loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Texans lost even worse to the Packers (42-24), and the game was in Houston.
Chicago has been awesome on defense. It ranks second in the league in scoring defense with 15.0 points allowed per game and sixth in total defense with 318.1 yards allowed per game. It has especially been stingy against the run.
The Bears rank sixth in run defense with 88.0 yards allowed per game. The Texans average a more than respectable 138.0 yards per game on the ground, but history says the Bears will be up for the challenge.
Chicago is on a 28-12 against the spread run versus good rushing teams that average 130.0 rushing yards or more per game.
It is also worth noting that the Bears are on a 23-10 against the spread run at home versus good passing teams that complete 61.0 percent or more of their passes.
Why Houston Covers
The Texans are a perfect 3-0 on the road where they have won by an average of 10.7 points. They are also 2-0 straight up and against the spread in two all-time meetings with the Bears. These wins came by 19 and seven points.
Houston has been a terrific investment. It is 18-7-2 against the spread in its last 27 games overall and 7-2 against the spread in its last nine road games.
The Texans have especially been a good investment against good teams. They are on a 6-0-1 against the spread run versus opponents that have a winning record. They are even 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games versus a team that has a winning mark at home.
The Bears are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, but Houston, which ranks second in the league in scoring with 29.6 points per game, might have a little too much offense. Consider that Chicago is on a 4-14 against the spread slide versus teams that average 29.0 points or more per game. It has lost by an average score of 32.5 to 16.4 in this situation.
When odds makers are expecting a close game, Houston has been the play every time. In fact, it is a perfect 7-0 against the spread in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. It has won these games by an average score of 27.3 to 15.1.
It is also worth noting that the Texans are on a 9-0 against the spread run after holding two straight opponents to 99 rushing yards or fewer. They have won by an average score of 29.3 to 13.9 in this situation.
The Bears, who are very reliant on their running game, could have trouble getting much of anything on the ground against a Houston defense that ranks second against the run with 82.8 yards allowed per game.
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