Titans Dolphins Odds
The Miami Dolphins (4-4) host the Tennessee Titans (3-6) Sunday in AFC action. Oddsmakers have listed the Dolphins as a six-point favorite and have set the total at 44.0.
Why Miami Covers
The Titans have lost back-to-back games straight up and against the spread. They are 3-6 against the spread in all games this season and 3-9-1 against the spread in their last 13 games.
Tennessee is 1-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this season. These three losses have come by an average of 28.3 points. It is 1-4-1 against the spread in its last six road games.
Miami has been a sound investment. It has covered the number in 13 of its last 18 games. Its three-game winning streak came to an end with a 23-20 loss at Indianapolis, but it is 8-1 against the spread in its last nine games following a loss. The Titans haven’t been as good of an investment in bounce back spots. They are just 2-5 against the number in their last seven games following a defeat.
The fact Tennessee has dropped two straight against the spread is significant because it is on a 4-15 against the spread slide in road games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. It has fell by an average score of 26.0 to 17.3 in this situation.
The Dolphins are the superior defensive team. They have given up an average of 382.1 yards per game (24th in the NFL) but are only allowing 18.6 points per game (6th in the NFL). The Titans, on the other hands, rank dead last in scoring defense with 34.2 points allowed per game. They also rank 30th in total defense with 414.2 yards allowed per contest.
Why Tennessee Covers
The Dolphins have been a bad investment on their home field for a long, long time. They are 22-51-1 against the spread in their last 74 home games. They are even 19-41-2 against the spread in their last 62 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
Tennessee is arguably the worst defensive team in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean a Miami offense that ranks just 23rd in the league with 332.5 yards per game will be able to take advantage. The Dolphins are on a 2-10 against the spread slide at home versus bad defensive teams that give up 27.0 points or more per game. The Phins have actually lost to these teams by an average score of 24.0 to 20.6.
You might think that Miami, which ranks a respectable 13th in rushing offense with 112.2 yards per game, will be able to take advantage of Tennessee’s 30th-ranked run defense (141.6 yards allowed per game), but the Dolphins are on a 19-35 against the spread skid versus teams that give up 130.0 rushing yards or more per contest. The Dolphins have only defeated these teams by an average score of 20.6 to 19.9.
Furthermore, the Dolphins are on a 3-12 against the slide at home in the second half of the season versus teams that give up 130.0 rushing yards or more per game. They have only won these games by an average score of 19.5 to 17.8. With this in mind, Miami might be laying a few too many points.