Vikings Packers Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd on
Thursday Night Football will feature an NFC North showdown as the Green Bay Packers (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) host the Minnesota Vikings (2-2, 2-2 ATS). Kickoff is scheduled for 8:25 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised on both CBS and the NFL Network. Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as a 9-point home favorite with the total set at 47.5 points.
Last year the Packers won 44-31 at Minnesota in Week 8 as a 7-point favorite. In the rematch at Green Bay the two teams ended in a rare tie at 26-26. The big difference in the two meetings was the Packers were without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the second contest.
Early Lean on Packers -9
This may seem like a lot of points for a division matchup, but with Minnesota likely down to 3rd string quarterback Christian Ponder, I like the Packers chances of turning this into a blowout. There is a chance that rookie Teddy Bridgewater could play for Minnesota, but the fact that he wasn’t able to return Sunday against Atlanta and this game coming on a short week, I have a difficult time seeing him on the field. If he does play, he will likely be at less than a 100%.
It’s also worth noting that while Bridgewater was impressive in his debut, it came against a bad Atlanta defense. This would be his first road game of his career and that’s a difficult spot to exceed in, especially with the limited reps he will get because of that bum ankle. If Ponder plays this becomes an even stronger play, as it will allow Green Bay to focus all their attention on stopping the run.
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog are just 18-44 ATS in conference games over the last 10 seasons.
The Vikings come into this game not having allowed a 300-yard passer this season, which looks impressive considering their last 3 games have come against Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. However, a closer look at the numbers suggest it’s only a matter of time. Minnesota is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.9% of their attempts with an average completion of 7.2 yards. Both Brees and Ryan were extremely close to the mark, with 288 yards a piece.
I’m also expecting the Packers to get their running game going. There’s been a lot made of Green Bay coming into this game ranked 28th in rushing at just 73.0 ypg. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played 3 of the league’s top 7 ranked run defenses. The only exception being last week against the Bears, but they were having so much success passing that it made no sense to run. Rodgers completed 22 of 28 attempts for 4 touchdowns.
Another key here is that both of the Vikings losses this season have come by double-digits. They lost 7-30 at home to the Patriots, which looks a lot worse after the way New England was dominated by the Chiefs and 9-20 at New Orleans. There’s also a solid system telling us to fade Minnesota, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog are just 18-44 ATS in conference games over the last 10 seasons.