First place in the NFC North will be up for grabs when the Minnesota Vikings (7-2) host the Green Bay Packers (6-3) on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis and will be televised locally on FOX. Taking a look at our Week 11 NFL betting lines, oddsmakers have this game currently listed as a pick’em with the total set at 44.5 points.
The Vikings come into this contest off a 30-14 win at Oakland as a 3-point underdog. It was the Vikings 5th straight win overall and 8th in a row against the spread. The Packers enter off a shocking 16-18 home loss to Lions as a 10-point favorite. Green Bay has now lost 3 straight since opening up the season 6-0.
This will be the first of two meetings between these two teams in the 2nd half of the season, as they will face off in Green Bay in Week 17. The Packers have won 4 of the last 5 and the lone exception during this run was the 26-26 tie back in 2013. The Vikings last win in the series was a 37-34 home victory as a 3-point dog back in 2012.
Early Lean on Vikings Pick’em
It’s rare that you see a team that has opened the season 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS continue to get undervalued, but that’s been the case with the Vikings. Instead of being drawn to Minnesota, who is playing as well as any team in the league right now, the betting public will be all over Green Bay, as the perception will be that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can’t lose 4 straight games. It reminds me a lot of what we are seeing with Carolina.
It’s the same scenario we saw two weeks ago at Carolina following their loss to Denver and last week against the Lions after back-to-back losses. The fact that the Packers weren’t able to right the ship against Detroit at home, raises a huge red flag for me. I think there’s a better chance those struggles continue on the road against the Vikings than magically get better.
Most of the attention for Green Bay’s struggles falls on Aaron Rodgers, but he’s not the problem. Rodgers has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last two games. It’s the talent surrounding him that has resulted in the Packers downfall. Green Bay has zero threat of a running game right now, rushing for a combined 208 yards in their last 3 games with the highest output being 90 yards against the Broncos.
Minnesota is 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS at home with Bridgewater at quarterback, as well as 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS with Bridgewater when they are listed anywhere from a 2.5-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite.
The defense is also not playing well. Despite the fact that the Lions have no running game at all, the Packers allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 24 of 38 attempts for 242 yards. Even Peyton Manning looked good against this defense, completing 21 of 29 for 340 yards.
I think the Vikings have the talent on both sides of the ball to take advantage of the Packers struggles. Defensively, Minnesota has the 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 228.0 ypg. Offensively, they have the leagues top rushing attack at 147.2 ypg, led by the league’s leading rusher in Adrian Peterson (961 yards). Green Bay is going to have to pay so much attention to Peterson, it’s going to open up big plays in the passing game for Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings ability to run the ball will also allow them to eat up clock and limit Rodgers opportunities with the ball.
Minnesota is 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS at home with Bridgewater at quarterback, as well as 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS with Bridgewater when they are listed anywhere from a 2.5-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite. The Vikings are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC North and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 in the month of November. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 in the month of November.
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