West Virginia at Oklahoma State Spread
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
This Saturday the Oklahoma State Cowboys will host the West Virginia Mountaineers in Big 12 play. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST at Boone Pickens Stadium and will be televised nationally on ABC. Oddsmakers have listed Oklahoma State as a 7.5-point home favorite over the Mountaineers with the total posted at 79 points.
Why West Virginia Will Cover
The Mountaineers ended up losing to TCU 38-39 in double-overtime last week, which resulted in them failing to cover the spread for a third straight week. It was a major improvement from the previous two weeks when West Virginia was embarrassed by Texas Tech (14-49) and Kansas State (14-55). The Mountaineers were in prime position to win and cover the 4-point spread, as they were up a touchdown with less than 2 minutes to play. Unfortunately the defense allowed a 94-yard touchdown to send the game to overtime.
If there was ever a time to back the Mountaineers you would think it would be this week. Having lost three straight against the spread and six of their last seven games overall, you have to believe oddsmakers have undervalued this team. Getting that extra half-point could make all the difference in this game.
While Oklahoma State hasn’t suffered the blowout losses like West Virginia, there is plenty of reason to believe this game will be extremely close right up until the final minutes of the 4th quarter. It wasn’t that long ago that we watched the Mountaineers go on the road and beat Texas 48-45. The same Longhorn team that the Cowboys lost to at home 36-41.
Why Oklahoma State Will Cover
The Cowboys failed to pull off the huge upset on the road at Kansas State last week, losing by a final score of 30-44. Even with the defeat Oklahoma State is 5-3 overall and respectable 3-2 in Big 12 play. The thing you have to like about Oklahoma State is that there’s a very realistic chance they win this game in a blowout.
Having watched West Virginia’s horrid defense this year, I don’t see any way they can slow down the Oklahoma State offense. The Cowboys come into this game ranked 8th in the country in scoring offense at 42.5 ppg. They have the 3rd ranked passing attack at 355.9 ypg through the air and the 20th ranked rushing offense at 220.0 ypg on the ground.
The Oklahoma State defense hasn’t been great, but they don’t figure to need to make a ton of stops to win this game by two scores. It would really take a remarkable performance from West Virginia’s offense to overcome what they are going to be giving up on the defensive side of the ball.
The Cowboys are 15-3 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992 and are a perfect 6-0 ATSvs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma State is also a great team to back coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread. They are a dominant 8-1 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons.
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