This Sunday the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) will host the San Francisco 49ers (1-1). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Arrowhead Stadium and the game will be televised locally on FOX.

Taking a look at the Week 3 NFL odds, the books opened the Chiefs as a 5.5-point home favorite, but that has since been bet up. KC is a 6.5-point favorite at most books, while some have made them a 7-point favorite. The total for this matchup is 55.5 points.

Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Chiefs vs 49ers

After losing a close one in Minnesota Week 1, San Francisco avoided the dreaded 0-2 start with a 30-27 win at home against the Lions. It was an unfortunate non-cover for those who backed the 49ers. San Francisco was a 6-point favorite and had a 30-13 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. While Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 2 touchdowns, he did have just 206 yards passing. The star of the game for SF was running back Matt Brieda, who had 138 yards and a score on just 11 carries.

Kansas City improved to 2-0 on the season with another impressive outright win as a road dog. In Week 1 the Chiefs defeated the Chargers 38-28 as a 3.5-point dog and this past Sunday won 42-37 as a 4-point dog in Pittsburgh. Patrick Mahomes and the offense has been sensational to start the season. After throwing 4 TD’s against LA in the opener, Mahomes threw 6 more against the Steelers, giving him the NFL record for most touchdown passes in the first two games of a season.

NFL Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Chiefs -6.5

Given how bad the Chiefs defense has been over the first two games, I think a lot of people will be tempted to take the points with Jimmy G and the 49ers, but I would have to lean towards backing Kansas City in this one. I’m not going to say the Chiefs have a good defense, but I don’t think it’s as bad as people think. They have been able to get the stops early in games, to allow the offense to give them the lead and made the big plays late to secure the wins.

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They have also played the first two games on the road against two likely future Hall of Famers in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. No disrespect to Garoppolo, but he’s still raw and actually had very similar numbers to rookie Sam Darnold against that Lions defense. The even bigger thing that stands out to me is the struggles of the offensive line. Garoppolo has been sacked 9 times in 2 games and that pressure is a big reason he’s thrown 4 interceptions. You turn the ball over against this Chiefs team, you could be down 20+ in the blink of an eye. Note that while the sacks haven’t been there, KC has been putting solid pressure on the QB.

The other thing to note about the Chiefs defense is they did play both of those first two games on the road. They have also been without their best defensive player in Eric Berry. While Berry might be another week away from returning, he is questionable. The biggest thing for me is the home crowd. Arrowhead Stadium is electric and one of the loudest places in the league when the Chiefs are mediocre. Fans are going absolutely nuts over this years team and I think rowdy is an understatement to what you will see on Sunday. That energy in the stadium should really work in favor of KC’s defense.

Let’s also not forget we arguably the best offense in the NFL going for us and the Chiefs could still easily cover if the defense struggles. Matthew Stafford threw for 347 yards and 3 scores against the 49ers last week and they almost gave up 100 yards rushing to the Lions. I think Mahomes and that offense is going to be able to do whatever they want in this one. Give me the Chiefs -6.5!