The Green Bay Packers (2-2-1) are set to host the San Francisco 49ers (1-4) in the final showdown of Week 6 on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as a 9.5-point home favorite with the total set for 46.5 points. Click here for a full look at this week’s NFL betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview: 49ers vs Packers
San Francisco’s woes following the injury to starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo continued in Week 5, as the 49ers fell 28-18 as a 3-point home favorite to the previously winless Arizona Cardinals. San Francisco had the lead for all of 10 seconds in the 1st quarter and they have no one to blame but themselves for the loss. The 49ers turned it over 5 times which is about the only way you can lose a game when you have a 447 to 220 edge in total yards and 33-10 advantage on first downs.
It was a similar story in the Packers in Week 5. Green Bay lost 31-23 as a 1.5-point road dog to the Lions. The Packers actually did a nice job making it respectable, as they trailed 24-0 at the half. Not only did Green Bay hurt themselves with 3 turnovers (led to 17 points), Mason Crosby missed 4 field goals and an extra-point. The Packers outgained the Lions 521 to 264 and had a 30-18 edge in first downs.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: Packers -9.5
I would have to lean towards laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
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It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and left tackle Joe Staley questionable with a groin injury, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
There’s also just something about a must-win game in prime time that brings out the best in elite quarterbacks. We saw it last week on MNF with Drew Brees and the Saints. I expect a similar big time performance from Rodgers in this one. Green Bay’s offense is getting healthy and this 49ers defense has allowed at least 24 points in every single game this season.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9.5.