This Sunday the San Francisco 49ers will host the New Orleans Saints in a Week 9 matchup. Kickoff is set for 4:05 EST at Levi’s Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers have New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 52 points.
Saints vs 49ers Vegas Odds Preview
New Orleans (3-4) comes in off an impressive 25-20 home win over the Seahawks. The Saints trailed the entire way up till the 4th quarter and pulled out the win. New Orleans is now just 1-game back of the Falcons in the loss column in the NFC South.
San Francisco (1-6) will be returning from their bye week looking to snap a 6-game skid. The 49ers haven’t won since beating the Rams 28-0 in Week 1 on Monday Night Football. Last time out they lost 17-34 at home to the Bucs as a 1-point favorite. Unlike the Saints, SF has nothing to play for at this point.
Free Pick & Odds Predictions: OVER 52
This line feels like a trap with the Saints only laying 3.5-points off that big win over Seattle. However, I don’t trust the 49ers or like backing bad teams with small spreads. On the bright side, I do see some nice value here on the total and this one going over the mark of 52.
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This might seem like a big number with the 49ers involved, given their limitations on offense. San Francisco has scored 21 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games. However, I like this spot for the 49ers offense.
Coming off their bye, SF has had two weeks to get the offense centered more around Kaepernick. On top of that, this is a great matchup. The Saints are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They are 18th against the run (110.7 ypg) and 29th against the pass (286.7 ypg). I think Kaepernick will be able to exploit them for some big plays through the air.
You also can’t overlook how bad a spot this is for the Saints. They are coming off a very physical game against Seattle and have another on deck against the Broncos. It’s going to be hard for them to get up emotionally for a bad team like the 49ers.
I think the lack of focus will come more on the defense than the offense. Drew Brees doesn’t take games off. That’s key here, cause he should have a field day against this 49ers defense.
Don’t be fooled by the fact that San Francisco is 7th against the pass. That’s more of a result of who they have played and their inability to stop the run. The 49ers are dead last against the run, giving up 185.1 ypg. Teams aren’t going to put up huge passing numbers on them when they can run at will. Keep in mind Cam Newton tormented their secondary earlier this season for 353 yards and 4 scores.
It’s also worth pointing out the OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games against a team with a losing record. The average total score in these 7 games is 64.9 ppg. Look for a lot of points to be scored on Sunday.