The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) are set to host the San Francisco 49ers (3-6) in the second meeting between these two NFC West rivals this season. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at CenturyLink Field and will be televised locally on FOX. Taking a look at the Week 11 NFL betting lines, oddsmakers currently have the Seahawks listed as a 12-point home favorite with the total set at 40 points.
Seattle comes into this contest off a crushing 32-39 defeat at home to the Cardinals as a 3-point home favorite on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks are now tied with St Louis at 4-5 in the NFC West, 3 games back of 1st place Arizona. San Francisco will be returning from their bye week looking to build on a surprising 17-16 win at home as a 9-point underdog.
The Seahawks won the first meeting 20-3 at San Francisco on Thursday Night Football back in Week 7. It was Seattle’s 4th straight win in the series and they come into this one having not lost at home to the 49ers since 2011.
Early Lean on 49ers +12
While I don’t think San Francisco has much hope of winning this game, I do think there’s a lot of value here with the 49ers catching nearly two touchdowns coming off a bye. It’s even stronger given that it’s a division game between a hated rival, as these are typically close regardless of how good the two teams are. We saw a similar scenario last week with the Lions, catching double-digits off their bye week at Green Bay and they won the game outright.
The decision to bench Colin Kaepernick in place of Blaine Gabbert came as a bit of surprise to some, but there’s clearly some disconnect between Kaepernick and a number of the players in the locker room. Gabbert wasn’t overly impressive in the win over the Falcons, but the team responded well to him being under center. Gabbert won’t have to do a lot to provide more offense than what the 49ers put up in their first meeting with Seattle, as San Francisco had just 142 yards of total offense and just 8 first downs.
Home favorites off a loss as as favorite, who are laying 10.5 or more points against a division rival are just 23-52 (31%) ATS since 1983.
I certainly don’t think Gabbert is going to light up the box score playing on the road against the Seahawks, but with the way Seattle’s offense struggled to move the ball against the 49ers defense, he may only need to guide San Francisco to 10-14 points to cover this spread. It will definitely help having two full weeks to prepare for this game and you know the 49ers would love nothing more than to add to the Seahawks troubles this season. They certainly catch a break getting Seattle off a huge game against the Cardinals.
There’s a strong system in play that favors a fade of the Seahawks given the scenario we find them in. Home favorites off a loss as as favorite, who are laying 10.5 or more points against a division rival are just 23-52 (31%) ATS since 1983. We also see that Seattle is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their last contest.