This Sunday the Houston Texans (4-8) will host the San Francisco 49ers (2-10). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at NRG Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.
Oddsmakers currently have Houston listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 43 points. Click here to check out our Week 14 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule and more links to our game previews.
49ers vs Texans Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds
San Francisco comes in off a 15-14 win on the road over the Bears as a 2.5-point dog in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start. The final score doesn’t do justice to how well the 49ers played. They outgained Chicago 388 to 147 and had 23 first downs to the Bears 8. The only reason it wasn’t a blowout is San Francisco had to settle for 5 field goals. That’s now 2 wins in the 49ers last 3 games after they started out the season 0-9.
Houston enters off a 13-24 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point dog. The Texans jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but the Titans were able to tie it up at 10-10 at the half and it would stay that way until Tennessee scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the 3rd quarter. Houston would get a field goal late in the 4th to cut the deficit to 4, but the Titans slammed the door with a 75 yards TD run in the final minute. It was a crushing blow to the Texans’ playoff hopes. Houston is 3-games back of the Ravens for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC and have six teams ahead of them at 5-7 or 6-6.
Free NFL Pick Against the Spread & Predictions: 49ers +3
It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play.
I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up all that motivated for this game against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10.
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Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for.
The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick.
There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg.
Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3.