This Friday the No. 20 Boise State Broncos (3-0) will host the Air Force Falcons (2-0) in what will be the MWC opener for both teams. Kickoff is set for 9:00 EST at Albertsons Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.

Oddsmakers opened the line for this game at Boise State -9.5, but it’s shifting in favor of the underdog with the line dropping to the Broncos -8. The total is at 55 after opening at 54.5.

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Air Force vs Boise State Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds

Air Force Falcons

The Falcons are coming off a surprising 30-23 overtime win at Colorado, as the Buffaloes had just upset Nebraska at home the previous week. Air Force was only a 3-point dog in that game, so it’s not like the books were surprised by the result.

Air Force rushed for 289 yards and while they only attempted 12 passes, they threw for 155 yards and 2 scores. The Falcons outgained the Buffaloes 444 to 325 and won the game despite a -2 turnover margin.

It was the first real text for Air Force, as they easily beat Colgate at home 48-7 (20.5-point favorite) in Week 1. The Falcons got a bye in week 2, which probably played a big part in them getting that win over Colorado.

Boise State Broncos

The Broncos come into this one off a 45-10 win at home against Portland State. While the finale score makes it look like Boise State cruised to a victory, that was a 14-10 game at the end of the 1st quarter. With that said, that’s also the same Portland State team that went on the road and only lost by a final score of 20-13 at Arkansas.

For those that don’t remember, Boise State opened with a 36-31 win at Florida State as a 6.5-point dog, rallying from a 31-13 deficit. They then got a much bigger test at home than expected in a 14-7 win over Marshall as a 14-point favorite.

The big story with the Broncos has to be the play of true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier. We have seen the good and the bad. Bachmeier has thrown for 927 yards and 4 touchdowns, but has also thrown 3 interceptions (one in each game).

Matchup History

Most probably assume Boise State has just owned this series, but that’s not the case. The Falcons actually won 3 straight from 2014 to 2016. Broncos snapped that streak with a 44-19 win at home in 2017 and made it two straight with a 48-38 win at Air Force in 2018.

Vegas Free NCAAF Betting Pick: Boise State -8

My early lean here would be to lay the points with the Broncos. It would be one thing if the sharps were on Air Force and really driving this line down, but close to 60% of the public action is on the Falcons. I try to stay away from public dogs, especially in big games, as much as possible.

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A lot of people were on Colorado last week and thought the Buffaloes would win easy. I think the public came away impressed with Air Force and see value with them getting more than a touchdown.

I get it, but I think this is a much tougher spot for Air Force than people realize. For those that don’t know, the Falcons campus is located in Colorado Springs, CO. That was the first time since 1974 that they got a chance to play Colorado. That’s was not just another game for this team. When you get that hyped up for a matchup, it can be tough to bring that same energy the next week, especially on the road with a short week of prep.

I really like what I’ve seen out of this Boise State team and I think the true freshman Bachmeier will have a big day here against a suspect Falcons secondary. I also expect an extra focused Broncos team with a lot of people picking Air Force as their biggest threat in the Mountain division.

The other thing here is that it’s no secret the Falcons offense is built around their ground attack. Boise State’s defense is built around their front 7 and are giving up just 3.5 yards/carry versus the run. The defense was outstanding in that earlier Friday night clash with Marshall, holding the Thundering herd to just 172 yards.

If Boise State can get up early, Air Force is not the team to play from behind. Give me the Broncos -8.