The Air Force Falcons travel to Colorado this weekend to take on the Rams in an all-Mountain West Conference showdown. Kickoff will be at 3:00 PM EST on Saturday, October 28th at Colorado State Stadium in Fort Collins, Colorado. The game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Colorado State enters this game as 12 point home favorites. Early betting has changed the line slightly, as the Rams opened at -11. The over/under for the game is 68 points. Click here for a full list of Week 9 betting odds and links to game previews.
Air Force vs Colorado State Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview
The Falcons snuck past the Nevada Wolf Pack last weekend, winning 45-42 on a last second field goal. The victory moved Air Force to 3-4 overall on the season. As usual, the Falcons key to success against Nevada was a stellar performance on the ground. They rushed for an incredible 550 yards, which accounted for all but 41 of their 591 total yards gained. Air Force ranks 5th overall nationwide with a rushing offense that features the triple-threat of Tim McVey, Arion Worthman, and Parker Wilson. Worthman averages almost as many rushing yards per game as passing yards. He has also found the end zone twelve times on the ground and eight times through the air. Defensively, Air Force has looked overwhelmingly average. The Falcons are allowing opponents an average of 33.8 points per game on 388.9 total yards per game.
Colorado State is looking to win their fifth game in a row after beating the New Mexico Lobos 27-24 last weekend. The Rams jumped out to an early 21-10 lead but sputtered offensively in the second half. QB Nick Stevens threw his 19th and 20th touchdown pass of the season as he passed for just under his season average of 310.8 yards per game. Stevens is the main catalyst for a Colorado State offense that is currently averaging 33.9 points on 507.0 total yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are limiting their opponents to an average of just 24.5 points per game. Colorado State has also managed to force 11 turnovers so far this season, which gives them a positive turnover margin (+1).
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Colorado State -12
There is no question that the Falcons have a very impressive rushing attack. They are undoubtedly one of the top few teams in the entire country on the ground. The problem for Air Force in this particular match-up is their mediocre defense. The Falcons can’t seem to really stop anybody, ranking outside of the top 100 nationwide in scoring defense. They are now tasked with facing a top 40 offense that is playing at home. I think the clear value in this spot is on the Colorado State side of things.
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Colorado State is a very impressive 9-2 ATS over their past 11 conference games and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. On the other hand, Air Force is a horrifically bad 1-10 ATS in their past 11 conference games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.
I think Colorado State finds a way to win this game by at least two touchdowns at home. The Rams will certainly allow Air Force to find some measure of success on the ground, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep this game close for four quarters. Colorado State is currently 54th overall in rushing defense, which is slightly above average. In my opinion, it is fairly clear that the Rams are the superior team on both sides of the ball. They should have no problem covering the spread in this one while also remaining undefeated against the Mountain West Conference.