This Friday the Fresno State Bulldogs will play host to the Air Force Falcons. Kickoff is set for 10:30 EST at Bulldog Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have the Falcons as 14-point favorites with the total set at 53.5 points. Get more game leans and betting odds by clicking the link.
Air Force vs Fresno State Vegas Betting Preview
The Falcons (4-3, 1-3 MWC) comes into this contest off a surprising 27-34 loss at home to Hawaii. Air Force was a 16.5-point favorite in that game. The Falcons have now lost 3 straight games outright as a double-digit favorite.
The Bulldogs (1-7, 0-4 MWC) enter this one off a 20-38 loss at Utah State. Though Fresno State did cover the spread as a 21-point road dog. The Bulldogs have beat the number in 3 straight and 4 of 5 overall.
Free Pick & Game Predictions: Fresno State +14
I have to side with the Bulldogs catching two touchdowns at home. Air Force has shown me nothing to make me think they should be laying 14-points on the road. The Falcons lost 26-35 at Wyoming as a 13-point favorite. The next week they lost 40-45 to New Mexico as a 14-point favorite. Most recently they lost at home to Hawaii 27-34 as a 16.5-point favorite.
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Typically you would see a team like Air Force way undervalued after their last 3 games. However, I don’t think that’s the case here. Fresno State is not a team the public trusts, even catching two scores at home. The Bulldogs only win on the season is against FCS foe Sacramento State. They also have ugly losses to Nebraska (10-43), Toledo (17-52) and UNLV (20-45).
One thing to keep in mind, is all three of those blowout losses came on the road. The Bulldogs have been a much more competitive team at home. They only lost by 7-points against a good Tulsa team and by just 14 to a very strong San Diego State squad.
Another key factor here is that we should get a big time effort from the Bulldogs. Fresno State fired head coach Tim DeRuyter after their most recent loss to Utah State. Whenever there’s a head coaching change, teams almost always come out fired up in their next game. I don’t think it’s going to be any different for the Bulldogs. Especially with this game being a nationally televised game on ESPN2.
On the flip side of this, this is a tough spot for Air Force. The Falcons have a huge game on deck next week at rival Army. There will be those that argue Air Force is primed for a bounce back effort. That’s been the case the last two weeks and they haven’t been able to respond with the effort needed. I just don’t see how you trust this team laying 2 touchdowns on the road.
The Falcons are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after 2 straight conference losses. Air Force is also just 21-37 in their last 58 against teams allowing 31 or more points/game. Fresno State is 19-8 ATS in their last 17 against teams who rush for 200 or more yards/game. The Bulldogs are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after rushing for 125 or less yards in 2 straight games.