The Air Force Falcons (2-3) travel to California in Week 7 of the college football season where they will take on the San Diego State Aztecs (4-1). Kickoff is set for 9:00 PM EST at SDCCU Stadium and the game will be available on the CBS Sports Network.
Taking a look at the Week 7 college football odds, San Diego State opened as a 10.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has moved only slightly after early betting, as the Aztecs are currently listed at -10. The total for the game is sitting at 45.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: San Diego State vs Air Force
Air Force snapped a three game losing streak last weekend after an impressive 35-7 home victory over Navy. The Falcons were in desperate need of a win against their longtime rivals, and despite facing an early 7-0 deficit, they rallied together and scored 35 unanswered points. Air Force is definitely quite unbalanced on offense, as they are averaging just 115.8 yards per game through the air (125th overall) compared to 255.2 yards per game on the ground (15th overall). QB Donald Hammond III is just 12/25 for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Hammond III has made some nice plays with his legs, however, rushing for five touchdowns and 96 yards. RB Cole Fagan has also been effective running the ball, racking up 252 yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, the Falcons are currently averaging 31.4 points per game (58th).
On the other side of the ball, Air Force is limiting opponents to an average of just 22 points per game (38th overall). They have been absolutely fantastic against the run, giving up an average of just 104.6 yards per game on the ground (12th overall).
San Diego State pulled off an impressive 19-13 upset over Boise State last weekend, improving to 4-1 on the season. The Aztecs were 13.5 point road underdogs heading into the game but managed to lead almost wire to wire after shutting down a dangerous Broncos offense. QB Ryan Agnew has thrown for 577 yards and three touchdowns while RB Juwan Washington has looked fantastic on the ground with 513 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Overall, San Diego State is currently averaging 21.6 points per game on offense (117th) on 350.8 total yards per game. While they have struggled moving the ball through the air (115th in the nation), they have looked pretty impressive on the ground (55th).
While the Aztecs are certainly not the most potent team in college football offensively, they have played outstanding on defense. San Diego State is currently giving up an average of just 19.8 points per game (28th overall). Most importantly, they are giving up the second fewest rushing yards per game in all of college football – 61.8 per game. That could spell trouble on Friday evening for an Air Force offense that is extremely rush-heavy.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: San Diego State -10
While I’m a little bit leery of laying so many points in this particular spot, I still think the Aztecs are in the better spot against the spread in this particular match-up. It is a fairly big concern that San Diego State has had so much trouble putting points on the board so far this season, especially when they are favored by double-digits at home on Friday. However, they the Aztecs have been absolutely dominant against the run so far this season, which means Air Force will likely be forced to try and move the ball through the air a bit more than usual. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where they find a lot of success with that strategy, especially considering that their passing offense is currently ranked almost dead last in the country. The Falcons have also struggled a lot on the road so far this season, going 0-2 and losing both games by at least a touchdown.
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Air Force is just 1-4 ATS over their past five games against teams with a winning record. They are also only 3-14 ATS over their past 17 conference games. On the other hand, San Diego State is an impressive 20-6-1 ATS over their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. They are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight Friday night games.
The Aztecs have also fared quite well against Mountain West opponents lately, going 36-15-2 ATS over their past 53 conference games. Air Force is also just 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings with San Diego State. Overall, I think the home team should be able to score enough points to win by double-digits. I don’t have enough faith in the Falcons passing game to do enough damage to grind out a tough cover on the road. The Aztecs should have a ton of confidence after such an impressive victory on the road last weekend- I’m laying the points and siding with the home favorite.