The Air Force Falcons (2-1) host the San Jose State Spartans (2-1) for a Mountain West duel in Colorado Springs. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST on Friday, September 27th at Falcon Stadium and the game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Air Force opened as a massive 21-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has moved substantially after early betting, as the Falcons are currently listed at +18.5. The total for the game is sitting at 55 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Air Force vs San Jose State
San Jose State got back above .500 last weekend after beating Arkansas 31-24 on the road to improve to 2-1 overall. The Spartans led 24-7 at the half but had to survive a bit of a scare late after the Razorbacks pulled to within a touchdown. QB Josh Love was fantastic, going 32/49 for 402 yards and two touchdowns. RB DeJon Packer led the way on the ground, rushing eight times for 40 yards and a score. WR Tre Walker was a beast through the air, hauling in 12 receptions for 161 yards. As a whole, San Jose State gained over 500 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns.
The Spartans were fairly average defensively against Arkansas, giving up almost 500 total yards and three touchdowns. However, they also picked off Razorbacks QB Nick Starkel five times in a single game, which obviously contributed significantly to the final outcome.
Air Force dropped to 2-1 overall last weekend after a tough 30-19 road loss to Boise State. The Falcons gave the #16 overall Broncos a run for their money, as the game was tied 10-10 at half time before the blue and orange put the game out of reach late. QB Donald Hammond III was 6/11 for 83 yards and a touchdown through the air while also adding 12 carries for 62 yards and a score on the ground. WR Geraud Sanders also had a decent outing, catching five passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. As a whole, the offense gained just under 350 total yards and scored two touchdowns.
The Falcons defense did not have a good game against the high-flying Boise State offense, giving up four touchdowns on over 350 total yards. Air Force really had a tough time trying to slow down WR CT Thomas, as he caught five passes for 119 yards and a touchdown.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: San Jose State +18.5
While I would have obviously preferred to nab the Spartans when they opened at +21, I still think they offer the better value in this matchup. Air Force hasn’t really shown that they are capable of blowing teams out this year, as their only double-digit victory occurred in Week 1 against Colgate. While San Jose State has certainly had the easier schedule to start the season, they still have an offense that is capable of scoring 20+ points against a somewhat average Falcons defense. This seems like it could easily be a 10-14 point win for Air Force, as I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a final score that is very close to 34-21 or 39-24. However, I can’t see them scoring 40+ and covering an almost 20 point spread in this spot.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our experts on staff.
San Jose State has also performed quite well against the spread as of late, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games against opponents with a winning record. They are also 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games overall. Air Force has not been nearly as impressive, going a brutal 7-19-1 ATS over their last 27 conference games. Ultimately, I think the Falcons should find a way to win this game at home – perhaps even by double-digits – but fail to win by 18+ points against a more than capable Spartans offense. I’ll take San Jose State to cover.