The #1 Alabama Crimson (4-0) Tide host the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns this Saturday (1-2) in a battle between two non-conference opponents. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Bryant-Denny Stadium and the game will be available on the SEC Network.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Alabama opened as a massive 49-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has increased slightly after early betting, as the Crimson Tide are currently listed at -50. The total for the game is sitting at 66.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Alabama vs Louisiana
UL Lafayette lost their second game in a row last weekend, dropping a tough 30-28 decision at home against Coastal Carolina. The Ragin’ Cajuns were outgained 497-381 in total yards and weren’t really in the game at all in the second half. They were also crushed in total possession time, only controlling the ball for 21:04 compared to 38:56 for Coastal Carolina. QB Andre Nunez is 47 for 65 so far on the season while also throwing for 541 yards and four touchdowns. Louisiana has a solid backfield, as Trey Ragas, Raymond Calais and Elijah Mitchell have combined for almost 600 yards rushing and five touchdowns. As a whole, UL Lafayette is scoring an average of 29.0 points per game (77th) on 415.7 total yards. They have definitely been much more successful on the ground, averaging 206 yards per game (39th) compared to just 209.7 yards passing (85th).
Louisiana has not been good on defense, allowing opponents to score an average of 34.3 points per game (106th). While they have been pretty average against the pass, (207.0 yards against per game) the Ragin’ Cajuns have been torched on the ground to the tune of 263.0 yards per game (126th).
Alabama is currently ranked #1 overall after reeling off impressive victories over Louisville, Arkansas State, Mississippi, and Texas A & M respectively. The Crimson Tide are averaging a ridiculous 53.8 points per game, which is currently 3rd overall nationwide. Quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts have led the way for passing game, combining for over 1,300 yards and 16 touchdowns over the first four weeks of the season. As a whole, Alabama is currently averaging 334.8 passing yards per game (13th) and 204.8 yards per game on the ground (42nd).
Things have been almost equally as impressive on the other side of the ball, as the Crimson Tide are currently ranked 4th in the FBS after allowing an average of just 12.8 points per game over their first four games. They have looked good against both the pass and run, as opponents are averaging only 108.5 yards on the ground per game (23rd) and 216.5 yards through the air per game.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Alabama -50
This spread is pretty ridiculous – I’m always at least somewhat wary of cheap backdoor covers during garbage time with one team up by 40+ points late in the game. Nevertheless, I don’t see how I can go against Alabama in this spot after they have been crushing teams for fun to open up their 2018-19 season. While a 50 point spread might seem like a little much initially, the Crimson Tide have already beaten Ole Miss by 55, Arkansas State by 50, and Louisville by almost 40. Even with all the free points, I’m not sure Louisiana has the offense (I already know they don’t have the defense) to cover the number in this one. Alabama is averaging over 50 points per game while the Ragin’ Cajuns struggled to get to double digits against #23 MS State.
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UL Lafayette are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record, 1-6 ATS over their past seven non-conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Alabama has been cruising against the spread lately, going 4-0 ATS over their last four games against non-conference opponents, 5-1 ATS in their last six September games, and 4-1 ATS over their past five games overall.
The Crimson Tide will clearly dominate this game on both sides of the ball. It likely won’t even be close after the first quarter, as has been the case against almost all of their opponents this year. The big questions is whether or not they will be able to increase the gap on the scoreboard to the half-century mark by the time the final whistle blows. I say yes, especially when considering how bad Alabama made average Louisville and Ole Miss teams look. I think Louisiana is weaker than both of those programs, so I’d be surprised if the Crimson Tide didn’t find a way to cover the number in this one. I’ll take Alabama to keep rolling at home.