The #4 overall LSU Tigers (7-1) host the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) in a massive SEC showdown that will likely award a spot in the College Football Playoff to the victor. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST at Tiger Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Taking a look at the Week 10 college football odds, Alabama opened as a 14.5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by a full point after early betting, as the Crimson Tide are currently listed at -13.5. The total for the game is sitting at 53 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: LSU vs Alabama
Alabama stayed perfect in Week 8 after a very impressive 58-21 victory over Tennessee. As has been the case in pretty much every other game they’ve played so far this season, the Crimson Tide were dominant on both sides of the ball and put the game out of reach by halftime. QB Tua Tagovailoa has been fantastic through eight starts this year, throwing for 2,006 yards and 25 touchdowns. He also has yet to throw an interception, as his current TD to INT ratio sits at 25:0. He has been bothered a bit by an ankle injury as of late, but all signs point towards him being ready to go on Saturday night for this all-important matchup with LSU. WR Jerry Jeudy has been clicking nicely with Tagovailoa as of late, as the sophomore has 354 receiving yards over just his last three games. As a whole, Alabama is currently scoring an average of 54.1 points per game (1st overall) on 564.2 yards of total offense (2nd). They have been moving the ball with ease through the air, currently sitting 5th overall in passing yardage with an average of 347.4 yards per game.
Things have also been very impressive on the other side of the ball, as the Crimson Tide are currently giving up an average of just 15.9 points per game (10th overall) on 307.9 total yards of offense (16th overall). Alabama has really been a force against the run, as opponents are currently averaging only 113.4 yards per game on the ground (21st overall).
LSU moved to 7-1 on the season their last time out after a hard fought 19-3 home win over #22 Mississippi State. The Tigers completely shut down the Bulldogs on offense, giving up just a field goal while allowing them to gain only 260 total yards of offense. QB Joe Burrow didn’t have his best game, throwing for just 129 yards and failing to find the end zone. Burrow has now failed to throw a touchdown pass in three consecutive games, which has to slightly concerning to the LSU coaching staff heading into this critical game against the top-ranked team in the country. However, the ground game for the Tigers has very solid, as they are currently averaging 190.6 rushing yards per game. The RB duo of Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have combined for over 1,200 yards in eight games. Overall, LSU is currently averaging 30.4 points per game (61st overall) on 383.6 total yards of offense (86th).
The Tigers have been one of the best defensive teams in the entire country, as they are holding opponents to just 15.1 points per game (7th overall) on 330.3 yards of total offense (22nd). LSU has been almost equally as impressive against both the pass and the run, as they currently rank 37th and 32nd overall respectively.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: LSU +13.5
If this game wasn’t being played in Death Valley, I’d almost certainly be taking Alabama to cover in this spot. However, the Tigers have been one of the best teams in the country at home over the past several seasons. While I would have loved to get my money in with the line still at +14.5 – especially with a full two touchdown cushion – I still think LSU is the better play against the spread in this particular spot. It also helps that nine out of the last ten meetings between these two powerhouses have been decided by fourteen points or less. There is no doubt that Alabama is the far superior team offensively, so there is certainly a possibility that the Tigers will be unable to keep pace with such a high-flying offense on Saturday night. However, LSU has averaged over 30 points per game over their last five outings, so they do certainly have some momentum going for them right now.
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Both of these teams have very good against the spread lately. LSU is a very solid 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games against SEC opponents. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last fifteen games overall and 5-0 ATS over their last five games in November. Alabama is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games in November but has owned the Tigers against the spread over their last several meetings, going 4-1 ATS over a five game span.
I still think Alabama will improve to 9-0 on the season here in Week 10, but they will likely have to grind out a tough road victory against a very capable opponent. Leaving over 13 points on the table is too many in my opinion, especially with how impressive the Tigers have performed against ranked opponents so far this year. Not only did they knock off Mississippi State, they also embarrassed the previously ranked #2 overall Georgia Bulldogs by 20 points. I’m taking the home underdog to keep this one close – give me LSU.