This Saturday the No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) will host the No. 22 ranked Texas A&M Aggies (2-1). Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Bryant-Denny Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at Alabama -23.5, but it’s been up and right now the Crimson Tide are 27-point home favorites. The total for this one is 61. Click here for a full look at the Week 4 odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Alabama vs Texas A&M Vegas Odds & Game Preview
The Aggies come into this one off a 48-10 blowout win at home over ULM, easily covering as a 28-point favorite. It was a great showing from Texas A&M in what most considered a massive trap game off the heartbreaking loss to Clemson and Alabama on deck. With the cover the Aggies improved to 3-0 ATS in their first 3 games under head coach Jimbo Fisher.
Alabama is coming off a statement win at Ole Miss. The Rebels scored on the first play from scrimmage (75-yard TD), but that was all they would get in an impressive 62-7 road win for the Crimson Tide. Alabama easily covered the 21-point spread against Ole Miss and they too are 3-0 against the number to start out 2018.
It’s hard to put too much emphasis on previous matchups given this is Fisher’s first season in College Station, but for what it’s worth Alabama has won 5 straight meetings. The Crimson Tide had covered three straight, but last year won by a final of just 27-19 as a 25-point road favorite.
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: OVER 61
I would lean towards taking the points with Texas A&M, as I just feel there’s some value getting almost 4 touchdowns, but at the same time I want nothing to do with betting against Alabama right now. If I’m playing this game, I will be on the OVER at 61. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks from our expert handicappers on staff.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 61.