The Oregon State Beavers (1-2) host the Arizona Wildcats (1-2) this weekend in a pivotal Pac-12 matchup between two teams looking to get back to .500 on the season. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM EST at Reser Stadium and the game will be televised on the Pac-12 Network.
Taking a look at the Week 4 college football odds, Arizona opened as a 7-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has stayed pretty much the same, as the Wildcats are currently listed at -6.5. The total for the game is sitting at 75.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Oregon State vs Arizona
Arizona won their first game of the season last weekend, cruising to an impressive 62-31 win at home over visiting Southern Utah. QB Khalil Tate was on fire, passing for 349 yards and five touchdowns. The Junior QB has looked pretty good through his first three games, throwing for 887 yards through the air with a 6:2 TD to INT ratio. On the ground, the Wildcats are led by RB J.J. Taylor, who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. As a whole, Arizona is currently averaging 34.3 points per game, which is slightly above average when compared with other FBS teams (55th).
On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats have really struggled shutting down opposing teams offensively. Arizona is currently giving up an alarming average of 34.7 points per game which is 105th overall nationwide. They have almost been equally bad against the pass and run, as they are giving up 244.3 yards per game through the air (87th) and 224.3 yards per game on the ground (107th). They could be in for a long night again on Saturday, as Oregon State is averaging almost 40 points per game on offense.
The Beavers lost a heart breaker to Nevada last weekend, missing a last second field goal to fall 37-35 and drop below .500. On offense, Oregon State is led by the quarterback duo of Jake Luton and Conor Blount. Luton looked great against Nevada, throwing for almost 300 yards and a touchdown before an apparent ankle injury forced him to leave the game. His status for this week is still somewhat up in the air, as he is still being listed on the injury report as day-to-day. RB Jermar Jefferson has probably been the biggest standout offensively for Oregon State, as he has already racked up almost 400 yards rushing in just three games. As a whole, this group is currently averaging 38.0 points (41st) on 527 total yards per game (16th).
Like Arizona, things have been a bit of a disaster for the Beavers on the other side of the ball. After allowing Ohio State to somehow put up 77 points in Week 1, Oregon State gave up an average of 30 points per game in Weeks 2 and 3. Thanks to the blowout in Week 1, the Beavers are currently giving up 46.3 PPG which ranks second-last nationwide (128th).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Oregon State +6.5
Something has to give in this matchup between two teams with a 1-2 record playing in an all-important Conference game. I think the most important thing that stands out for me in this spot is Arizona’s horrific run defense being forced to face Oregon State’s potent ground attack. Jermar Jefferson is going to absolutely feast on the 114th ranked rushing D after already putting up 391 yards and six touchdowns in only three games. Although the Wildcats will also find success offensively, I think the Beavers defensive statistics are still slightly skewed by the 77 point embarrassment against Ohio State. All signs point to this game being a highly entertaining shootout in a likely “last possession wins” type of situation.
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Oregon State is 9-4 ATS over their past thirteen home games and seems to always show up when playing in front of a rowdy crowd at Reser Stadium. The Beavers are also 8-2 ATS in their past ten games after an ATS win, so this group should have plenty of confidence here in Week 4. Arizona is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, 5-16 ATS over their past 21 road games, and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games after a straight up win.
Despite their impressive win against Southern Utah last weekend, I’m still extremely skeptical of Arizona. They could easily be 0-3 right now if their schedule hadn’t gifted them a cupcake matchup in Week 3. Their rushing defense is almost non-existent and will have no chance at slowing down a ground attack that is averaging 212.3 yards per game (39th). The Beavers also showed a lot of heart last weekend after refusing to give up despite facing a 23 point deficit in the first half. I think Oregon State keeps this one close at home and finds a way to cover – I’ll take the Beavers.