This Saturday the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-5, 5-3 Pac-12) will host the Arizona Wildcats (7-4, 5-3). Kickoff is set for 4:30 EST at Sun Devil Stadium and will be televised on the Pac-12 Network.
Oddsmakers currently have the Wildcats listed as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 73.5 points. Click here for a full breakdown of the schedule and game odds for Week 13, plus links to our game previews.
Arizona vs Arizona State Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Wildcats come into this one off a 28-48 loss at Oregon as a 3-point dog. It started out well for Arizona, who led 21-14 midway through the 2nd quarter, but the Ducks closed out the game on a 34-7 run. The loss was only the second for the Wildcats in their last 7 games. The only other being a 35-49 loss at USC.
The Sun Devils enter off a 40-24 win and cover as a 7.5-point road favorite against Oregon State. It wasn’t nearly as competitive as the final score would indicate, as Arizona State led 40-10 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The Beavers made it look respectable with a couple of garbage touchdowns. The win secured bowl eligibility for the Sun Devils.
Last year the Wildcats won 56-35 at home in a game that was listed as a pick’em. It was the 4th straight win for the home team in the series. Last time Arizona State hosted Arizona, they won 52-37 as a 6-point favorite.
Free NCAA Football Pick & Betting Predictions: Arizona St +2
I think there’s some decent value here with the Sun Devils catching points at home against the Wildcats. This is a much improved Arizona State team from last year and I’ve backed them numerous times over the last couple months with a lot of success. They continued to be undervalued by the books and are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
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Revenge is a big time motivator at the college level and there’s no doubt that the Sun devils have had their eyes set on revenge against in-state rival Arizona after last year’s embarrassing 21-point loss. I look for Arizona State to not only win here, but to win convincingly.
One of the reasons the Wildcats get a ton of love from the books, is everyone is drawn to the big numbers of Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tate is certainly fun to watch, but he was held in check last week by the Ducks, as he had just 32 yards on 14 carries. Look for Arizona State to try and use the same game plan that Oregon used to slow down Tate in this one.
Even if Tate has a big game, I still like the Sun Devils chances here to get the cover. That’s because Arizona State’s offense should be able to score at will here against a Arizona defense that is dealing with a number of injuries. The Wildcats lost 3 different defensive lineman to injury in last week’s game against Oregon and have several other defensive players either questionable or out for the year.
Arizona does have a 3-2 record on the road this season, but could very easily be 1-4, as they have a 3-point win at Colorado and mere 1-point victory at Cal. The only legit win came against an awful UTEP team, while the other two were blowout losses to USC and Oregon. Adding to this, is the fact that this will be the Wildcats second straight on the road and 3rd road game in their last 4 overall. That’s not an easy thing to overcome this late in the season.
Arizona is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games in the 2nd half of the season and a mere 2-13 ATS in their last 15 vs a team like Arizona State, who is averaging more than 32 minutes of possession and 21+ first downs per game. The Sun Devils on the other hand are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games played on Saturday and 34-18 ATS in their last 52 at home against a conference opponent. Not only is the home team 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings in this series, but they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. Give me Arizona State +2.