This Saturday the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-6, 1-5 SEC) host the No. 17 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-3, 3-3 SEC). Kickoff is set for 12:00 EST at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as a 11.5-point road favorite with the total set at 59 points. Check out our Week 12 odds page for a full look at the college football betting schedule and for more links to our game previews.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Bulldogs come into this one off a crushing 24-31 home loss to Alabama, but did cash in for their backers as a 14-point underdog. Mississippi State led the majority of the way and were up 24-17 in the 4th quarter before eventually giving up the game winning score in the final seconds.
The Razorbacks struggles continued, as they fell 10-33 at LSU, failing to cover as a 19-point dog. Arkansas actually looked like they were going to keep it within the number, as they railed just 10-13 midway through the 3rd quarter, but the Tigers ended the game on a 20-0 run.
These two teams have played some thrilling high-scoring games the past two seasons. In 2015 the Bulldogs squeaked out a 51-50 win at Arkansas as a 6-point dog. The Razorbacks returned the favor with a 58-42 win at Mississippi State as a 1-point dog a year ago.
College Football Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Mississippi St -11.5
I typically wouldn’t look to back a team like the Bulldogs off such a crushing loss in a big game, but I have a lot of faith in head coach Dan Mullen and his staff to get his team to bounce back with a big time effort. In fact, I believe that performance against Alabama will only add to the confidence of this Mississippi State team, who has had a chip on their shoulder from the start after getting picked by most experts to finish last in the SEC West. Not only are they not going to finish last, but they have a chance at a 10-win season if they can win their last two and their bowl game.
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The other big thing here is this isn’t a good Arkansas team. The Razorbacks only win inside conference play came against Ole Miss, who is basically just going through the motions with no shot at postseason play. Arkansas is getting outscored in conference play by more than 20 ppg and have been no match against the top teams.
I also think it’s important to point out that LSU was in a very similar spot to Mississippi State, as they had just lost the week before to Alabama. That would have been an easy spot for the Tigers to lay down and yet they won the game by 23 points. Another factor that will get overlooked with the Bulldogs off that loss to the Crimson Tide is the revenge angle that Mississippi State has after last year’s loss to the Razorbacks.
The matchup is also one that I think favors the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s defense has been outstanding outside of their 3 games against Auburn, Georgia and Alabama, who are easily the 3 best teams in the SEC. Even if the defense slips, the offense should be able to carry the load and do enough to get a win here by at least two touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense has been non-existent in SEC games this season, as the Razorbacks are allowing 43.5 ppg and have allowed at least 33 in all 6 of their conference games.
Arkansas is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. On the flip side of this, we see that Mississippi State is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when coming off a home loss. Give me the Bulldogs.