This Thursday the No. 25 ranked Troy Trojans will host the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Kickoff is set for 9:30 EST at Veterans Memorial Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU. The Trojans are a 9-point home favorite with the total set at 55.5 points. Get more free betting leans and game odds by clicking the link.
Arkansas State vs Troy Vegas Betting Preview
The Red Wolves (5-4, 5-0 Sun Belt) come in off a 41-22 win at home over New Mexico State. Arkansas State covered in that one as a 18.5-point favorite and have now beat the number in 5 straight games.
The Trojans (8-1, 5-0 Sun Belt) enter off a thrilling 28-24 home win over Appalachian State. Troy jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but trailed 21-24 late in the 4th quarter. The Trojans answered with the game-winning touchdown in the final minutes.
This is a massive game for these two Sun Belt teams. Winner will move into sole possession of first in the conference standings. The Red Wolves have had the edge in the series of late. Arkansas State has won each of the last 3 meetings, though the teams haven’t met since 2013.
Free Pick & Odds Predictions: Arkansas St +9
My early lean here would have to be on the Red Wolves plus the points. I just think we are getting an inflated line here because of the Trojans being ranked in the Top 25 (AP Poll). While a great accomplishment, I’m not buying there only being 24 teams better than Troy.
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Sure the Trojans have the better overall record, but both of these teams come in at 5-0 in Sun Belt play. Arkansas State has been a completely different team since they started out the year 0-4. I think this a much more evenly matched game than the spread here would suggest.
These two teams have played 3 common opponents. Troy is averaging almost 7 points and 110 yards more than Arkansas State in these games. However, the Red Wolves are allowing almost 90 yards fewer on the defensive side of the ball.
While Troy’s ranks 38th in the country in total defense, they are 106th against the pass, allowing 265.1 ypg. Arkansas State has a decent passing attack, as they are 55th in the country at 243.4 ypg. I look for the Red Wolves to be able keep pace offensively in this one. I also think there defense is going to play well here.
I also think there’s a slight edge here to Arkansas State based on the schedule. Both teams are playing on short rest (4 days). The big difference is the Red Wolves come in off an easy game last week against New Mexico State. Troy on the other hand played a huge game against Appalachian State. I just think it’s going to be a lot easier for Arkansas State to rebound in this spot.
A lot of Troy’s success has been a result of them winning the turnover battle. The Trojans have a +9 turnover margin on the season. Arkansas State has turned it over just 3 times in their last 4 games. On top of that, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a +1 turnover margin/game. The Red Wolves are also a dominant 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Supporting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark this season.