This Friday the Utah State Aggies will host the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 EST at Romney Stadium and will be televised on the CBS Sports Network. Oddsmakers have the Aggies listed as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 57 points. Click here for more Week 3 betting odds and game previews.
Arkansas State vs Utah State Vegas Odds & Preview
The Red Wolves haven’t got off to a great start. Arkansas State lost at home to Toledo 10-31 as a 4-point favorite in Week 1. They followed that up with an ugly 14-51 loss at Auburn as a 20.5-point underdog.
Utah State cruised to a 45-6 win against Weber State as a 20.5-point favorite. They then went on the road to USC as a mere 16-point dog, but ended up losing 45-7.
These two teams last played each other in 2014. The Red Wolves won 21-14 in overtime as a small 1-point home dog. Utah State did have a chance to win that game in regulation. However, their 38-yard field goal as time expired was blocked by Arkansas State.
Free Point Spread Pick & Game Predictions: Utah State -9.5
This is a difficult game to predict. Both teams were embarrassed last week against Power 5 opponents who had something to prove after a lackluster showing in Week 1.
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My lean here would have to be on the Aggies based off the first look. Arkansas State’s offense hasn’t been able to get anything going in their first two games. Only scoring 14 points against Auburn is nothing to read into, but the 10-point at home in their opener is. Toledo only had 4 starters back on defense and transitioning to a new scheme with coaching change.
Arkansas State did average 40.0 ppg and 438 ypg last year, but they lost a lot. They had to replace their starting quarterback and top rusher and top receiver. I just don’t see how you can trust them on the road in a short week of preparation.
With the passing game not working, the Red Wolves have primarily focused on the ground game. That figures to a problem against the Aggies. While Utah State allowed 178 rushing yards to USC, the Trojans needed 44 carries to get to that mark. That’s just slightly more than 4.0 yards/carry, which isn’t bad given the talent gap.
Utah State’s offense didn’t look great against USC, but that was cause they couldn’t run the ball. Arkansas State’s defense hasn’t been good against either the run or the pass. Forget the numbers against Auburn (allowed 706 yards, 462 rushing). They allowed 185 on the ground and 371 though the air against Toledo.
The last big key here is that this is a weekday home game and both teams on short rest. This is almost always a big advantage for the home team. Not to mention the Aggies are playing with revenge from their overtime loss at Arkansas State in 2014. On top of that, the home team has won 6 straight in the series.
We also see that Utah State is 16-5 in their last 21 after allowing more than 40 points. They are also 15-5-1 in their last 21 when playing on Friday. Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS last 4 in non-conference and 1-4 ATS after giving up 200 or more rushing yards.