Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers.

Walker Buehler (5-4, 3.32 ERA) comes in off back-to-back strong outings for LA and he now owns a sharp 1.06 WHIP and 79:16 K:BB over 74.1 innings of work. Also note that Buehler owns an elite 2.31 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side goes with Wade LeBlanc (7-2, 3.80) who gave up one run over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Texas on Monday. Previous to that he’d been rocked for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 frames in a loss to the Astros. LeBlanc has been decent this year, but we think Buehler carries over his recent momentum; great value, play on the DODGERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros.

We think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying what we feel to be a very reasonable price all things considered. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.88 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a 3-1 victory over San Francisco on Monday. Morton has now posted three straight quality starts, a stretch of 19 innings with a 1.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts. The home side goes with Edwin Jackson (4-2, 2.48) who comes in off two straight victories and who after going 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA, has defied the odds in 2018 to become a very interesting matchup. Jackson though faces a stiff test here in the defending champs prolific line-up and we think he’ll finally stumble. We like Morton in this match-up, play on the ASTROS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees

We had a play on the Yanks and they came up short 3-1 at home to Blake Snell and the Rays. While that play fell short, we think the home side will bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.03 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with one walk while striking out two over five innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Stroman has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still a brutal 2-5 with a 5.33 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Lance Lynn (8-8, 4.46) who gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Saturday, also going on to strike out eight. Over 16.2 innings as a Yankee, Lynn has posted a 0.54 ERA and a 22:4 K:BB. As good as Stroman has been of late, we’re still giving Lynn the big nod in this match-up. Expect the YANKEES to respond for the home town crowd after yesterday’s poor effort. Lay the price.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.

We had a play on the Cubs yesterday and we’re back on them again here. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels (7-9, 4.22 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out nine and walking one in an unfortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Over his first 18 innings for his new club Hamels has allowed just two earned runs. The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-8, 3.66) who went seven scoreless in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Williams has been on point of late, having posted four scoreless efforts out of his last five trips to the hill. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-11 in their last 14 at home underdog in the +105 to +135 range. We like Hamels to get the better of Williams and we look for the CUBS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Chicago.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.