Art Aronson

This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Carlos Carrasco and the Indians could/should be much bigger favs.

Carrasco: He’s 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA. He had his last start cut short due to arm fatigue. Carrasco was given an extra couple of days off to heal and has been given the green light this evening. Note that he’s 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA on the road thus far.

Amir Garrett: He’s 3-3 with a 5.18 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. 

The bottom line: We think Carrasco will get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the INDIANS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers.

We think Rick Porcello is overpriced in this particular matchup.

Andrew Cashner: He’s 1-3 with a 2.45 ERA. He gave up two runs off eight hits and a walk over seven innings in a 9-3 win over the Phillies on Wednesday, also striking out two. He’d take a shutout into the seventh inning. Note that he owns a 3.12 ERA on the road and a 2.62 ERA in all “night” games.

Porcello: He’s 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He most recently was rocked for four runs off nine hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-4 extra-innings win over the Cardinals on Wednesday. Note that Porcello has given up an MLB-high 66 hits (including ten dingers) over 55.1 innings of work. 

The bottom line: Note that Texas is 14-9 (+4 units) this year after a win, while Boston is just 7-14 (-9.5 units) in the same position. The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the RANGERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles.

At first glance these two starters’ numbers look spectacular. And they are. But each has shown some “cracks” in the armor of late and both are coming off poor outings. We think it’s a sign of things to come.

Ervin Santana: He’s 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA. Santana was rocked for five runs off six hits and four walks while striking out three over seven innings in a loss to Colorado on Thursday. If we look a little closer at Santana’s numbers, we discover that his 4.37 FIP points to some rockier times ahead. Also note that his 6.5 K/9 is pretty weak as well.

Dylan Bundy: He’s 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA. He was most recently shelled for six runs off eight hits and four walks while striking out just three over six innings in a loss to Detroit on Thursday. His 3.92 FIP also suggests some rougher times ahead. And his 6.1 K/9 ratio leaves a lot to be desired as well.

The bottom line: Note that Minnesota has seen the total go OVER the number in 15 of 27 against right-handers this year, while Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 17 following a loss. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Ottawa Senators.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

As note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three when playing on one days rest, while Ottawa has seen the total go UNDER the number in 28 of 43 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

The bottom ilne: Ottawa looked horrible in Game 5’s 7-0 setback (we had a play on Pittsburgh in that one). The Sens came in as one of the stingiest defensive clubs in the playoffs, so we can expect a return to the norm tonight, as it’s almost impossible to imagine Craig Anderson having a worse performance. And for the Pens, they’ve allowed just two total goals the last two games, getting some timely play from Matt Murray. In our opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

As note that Boston is already 5-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Cleveland is just 4-6 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 8-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.

The bottom line: We had a play on Boston in Game 5. So can the Celtics pull of another miracle and win Game 4 outright as well? Anything is possible obviously, but we’re not going to be so bold as to predict back-to-back massive upsets. That said, we do think that the now re-energized C’s can keep this one a lot closer than what Vegas is leading us to believe. It was a big wake up call for Cleveland, who we expect to play with an added focus on the defensive end tonight after the Game 5 collapse. In our opinion, this is just too many points to be giving up. Play on BOSTON.

AAA Sports