Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is a 10* play OVER CAPS-LEAFS

In what has been an incredible O/U run for us, we've generally been targeting Overs in games with high totals like this one. It worked out yesterday as the Blackhawks and Red Wings combined for nine goals. Expect something similar here from Washington and Toronto. Neither team is any stranger to scoring goals.  Washington averages 3.4/game while Toronto is slightly better at 3.5. Granted, the Maple Leafs had some struggling scoring in their last two games, which you might want to pin on the fact they were playing on the road. But the two games before that, also on the road, saw them score 11 times. I don't see them having any trouble scoring tonight as they've faced Washington twice before and scored 10 goals in those two games. The Capitals are 14-7 Over in revenge spots in 2018-19 and 5-1 Over when coming off three or more consecutive road games. Play OVER Washington-Toronto

AAA

This is a 10* play on St. Mary's

St. Mary's is a good team, but hasn't been covering spreads lately. They are 1-6 ATS last seven games. But tonight is a situation conducive for them to win big. They're playing a Pacific team they already beat, by 12, early in the month. That was one of the games they did not cover, but it was close as they were 14-point favorites. The key was Pacific shot 67 percent in the first half. That won't happen again in tonight's rematch. In the two games since playing SMU, the Tigers have scored 59 points twice. They have scored more than 66 just one time in the last 11 games. Because they are on the road this time, St. Mary's doesn't need to win by as much to cover the spread. It's not asking too much for the Gaels to win by double digits again vs. a team barely averaging 60 points per game in WCC action. Play on ST. MARY'S

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER SUNS-CAVS

What a game this is. I'm being facetious, of course. Phoenix is the worst team in the Western Conference. Cleveland would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not for the Knicks. Look for an ugly game. Defensively, are these teams any good? Obviously not. But they're not good offensively either. The Cavs average only 103.0 PPG, which is last in the East and second worst in the whole league. Phoenix isn't much better at 105.9 PPG. That's 2nd worst in the West and they don't have TJ Warren (one of their top two scorers). When you look at the Cavs last game, a 148-139 loss to Brooklyn, note that it was a triple overtime game. It was 109-109 at the end of regulation. Before that, they had not topped 107 points in five games. The Suns haven't topped 107 in the last four games. Play UNDER PHOENIX-CLEVELAND

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI

I'll be playing both the side and total in this Miami-Philly game. For the side, I'm taking the Heat plus the points. They'll be getting both Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr back in the rotation tonight. This is great news, particularly with Dragic, who is their starting point guard. To me, this is too many points for Philly to be laying in the first game after a long layoff. It's a situation that's conducive to suffering an upset. I know the 76ers look strong on paper, but Joel Embiid isn't playing tonight. He's going to miss the next week due to a knee injury. I know it's been awhile since they last played, but the Sixers are just 5-12 ATS off a double digit win. Before the All Star Break, they beat the Knicks by 15. Miami won at Dallas right before the Break and Dallas is a good home team. They can win here as well. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER MIAMI-PHILLY

As for the total, this should be a high scoring game. The Heat are obviously stronger on offense now with Dragic and Jones back. An interesting note about Miami is they have a better record on the road than at home. That tidbit applies to our side play, but also here as even with Dragic missing all that time, the Heat still score more on the road than they do at home (slightly). Philly scores a lot more at home (119.1 PPG) than on the road, so even without Embiid, they figure to finish with a decent number tonight. It won't be enough to cover the spread, but it will still be a decent number. The Sixers haven't scored fewer than 106 points in any game since the new year. Play OVER MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA

AAA