Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5

Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on NY -1.5

Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The good news for Atlanta is that they have not lost back to back games since the All Star Break. The bad news is that they also have not won back to back games since the All Star Break. For the sake of Tuesday, they hope the pattern of alternating wins and losses (now over the course of 17 games) continues as they are off a loss heading into St. Louis. The Cardinals may be at home, but the Braves are favored in this one as they try to move within a game of .500. The Braves have the NL East’s best run differential, which is something worth mentioning. They are only 3.5 games out of first place. St. Louis is very much in “also-ran” status in the Central, trailing Milwaukee by 10 games. The Cardinals may have a better than .500 record (56-52), but they have a -37 run differential. Compare that to Atlanta, whose run differential is +49. The Braves are the better team, which is why they are favored, and Max Fried is looking to stay unbeaten for his career against St. Louis. Earlier in 2021, Fried allowed just one run, two hits and two walks in a 9-1 win over the Cardinals. He has a 0.65 ERA in three games against them. Jon Lester will be making his St. Louis debut on Tuesday. The problem is he’s lasted six innings just three times this season and he lost to Baltimore in his final start for the Nationals. The Braves are one of five NL teams to have scored 500 runs this year. Play on ATLANTA

AAA