Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is not only off a 117-109 loss to the Knicks (were 6.5-point favorites), but has also failed to cover four in a row. They have a golden opportunity to turn things around Sunday when they host the Kings, losers of nine straight. Sacramento was at least competitive in its last game, but they still lost by eight in Phoenix. They hadn’t covered in five straight before that. No Marvin Bagley III for tonight either. Very bad defense has been the Kings problem all season. They give up the most points per game in the league. This feels like it should be a big offensive night for Dallas, who has struggled at home, They badly want to move up into sixth place in the Western Conference and thus avoid the play-in round for the postseason. They are two games back of sixth place Portland right now. Off their last 10 straight up losses, the Mavs are 7-3 against the spread. This is a mismatch and the Kings haven’t stayed within seven points of anybody in their past six games. Play on DALLAS

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We had Vegas -1.5 when they beat Anaheim 4-0 on Friday. There was a pretty strong case that the Golden Knight would roll in that spot and sure enough they did with a monumental 51-16 edge in shots on goal. Vegas is averaging 4.4 goals during a five game win streak, but they’ve also posted two shutouts and have given up just eight goals the last four games. Anaheim is 5-0 Under its last five games and while they two four-goal wins against San Jose, they haven’t beaten anyone besides the Sharks in April! In the last six games not against the Sharks, the Ducks have failed to score more than two goals. They have just one in the last three. Vegas is so good at limiting shots and we don’t think they’re going to go for four (or more) goals again. Four of the last five meetings have gone Under and this one has the potential to be lower scoring than Friday was. The Under is 15-7-1 their past 23 road games. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Blue Jays and Royals played a doubleheader on Saturday. Both teams got a win and both games stayed Under. Toronto won the first, 5-1, before KC came back with a 3-2 win of their own. Keep in mind those were only seven inning games per MLB’s “new” rules. We’re set to play a full nine today and look for more runs to be scored as a result. The Jays got a really strong start from Steven Matz in Game 1 yesterday. But their starter for Sunday, Robbie Ray, figures to be less impressive. Ray and Royals starter Brad Singer were both supposed to go Friday before the rain interfered. Singer has had a poor start to the year with a 6.48 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The second game yesterday is the only time in the last five games that Toronto didn’t score five or more runs. Kansas City averages 5.7 runs per game at home, but also gives up 5.1. Don’t forget that Thursday’s game was a 7-5 final (KC won). We expect something along those lines here. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 7* on WASHINGTON

The Nationals were embarrassed in the first game of this series, losing 11-6. But they’ve subsequently won 1-0 and 6-2 against the Diamondbacks the past two days. We like them to make it three in a row behind Stephen Strasburg on Sunday. Strasburg has pitched twice in 2021, once at home and once on the road. The one at home went much better as he held the Braves scoreless over six innings and allowed only one hit. We’ll just forget what happened in St. Louis earlier this week. Arizona isn’t very good as they’ve got just one series win so far. They’ve lost four of five and Madison Bumgarner no longer inspires much confidence when he’s on the mound. Both of Bumgarner’s starts have not gone well. He allowed five runs to Colorado and while that could be chalked up to “Coors Field,” he then allowed six runs at home to Oakland. Washington’s lineup produced 14 hits on Saturday. There have been 19 times the last three seasons that Arizona has been a road underdog of +175 to +250. They’ve lost 15 of those, including a 1-4 record so far this year. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Pelicans, who are desperate for a win, have lost two in a row. They went off as the betting favorite in both defeats. One of them was to the Knicks, who are on an eight-game ATS win streak. The teams now meet for the second time in five days Sunday afternoon, but this time at Madison Square Garden. After beating the Pelicans 116-106 on Wednesday, the Knicks then defeated Dallas 117-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. They’ve gone off as the dog in five of these eight straight ATS wins. Two of those games they lost, but they are now on a five-game SU win streak as they are now sixth in the Eastern Conference. New Orleans badly needs this game as they are 11th in the Western Conference and 2.5 games back of 10th. They lost 117-115 in overtime at Washington on Friday night, a terrible result given their current circumstance and that they held the Wizards to 4 of 27 from three-point range. The Knicks’ Julius Randle is as hot as anyone right now with 76 points in the last two games. The Pelicans give up the third most points per possession in the league. Wednesday’s game went Over the total and so should this one as the Knicks are 3-0 Over their last three games, averaging almost 115 points/game. Play on OVER

AAA