Art Aronson

1* Free Play UNDER Astros/Mariners.

A couple of capable starters go head-to-head in this one and all signs point to a lower-scoring affair:

Lance McCullers: He’s 6-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. McCullers returns from the DL after throwing a couple of bullpen sessions earlier this week. McCullers is in the midst of his finest season of his three year career. He faced Seattle on April 4th and gave up one run off five hits and two walks with seven K’s over six innings. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road this year.

Sam Gaviglio: He’s 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gaviglio’s 5.89 FIP suggests that his ERA and WHIP are likely unsustainable over the long-term, but note that the rookie has been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-0, 1.71 record/ERA.

The bottom line: Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four when the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5, while Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in eight of 14 this season in the same position. Consider the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we definitely feel that David Price and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones:

JC Ramirez: He’s 6-5 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Ramirez most recently gave up five runs off five hits and four walks over three innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Ramirez has regressed as the season has progressed and has now allowed 18 runs over his past four starts. 

David Price: He’s 2-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Price comes in off his best start of the year following a late season start after surgery, giving up three runs off eight hits with three K’s over five frames in a victory over the Astros on Sunday. 

The bottom line: We think these two pitchers are clearly moving in opposite directions right now. Ramirez was masterful over the first month, but has come back down to Earth. Price has yet to fully find his rythym this year, but his recent form would suggest that he’s ready to take another step forward tonight. LA is 17-22 (-1.1 units) on the road this season, while Boston is 21-11 (+5.4 units) at home. Lay the price on Price, play on the RED SOX.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.

We think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe:

Jon Lester: He’s 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Most recently he gave up two runs off five hits while stirking out seven over six innings in a no-decision on Monday. Lester has so far struggled on the road, but his track record would suggest that he’ll be able to start tightening up his peripherals as the season wares on.

Justin Nicolino: He’s 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Nicolino returned from injury to get rocked for six runs off six hits over three innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Monday. 

The bottom line: The Cubs are 11-6 (+3.5 units) against southpaws this year, while Miami is just 6-7 (-1 unit) against lefties. After yesterday’s 2-0 defeat, we look for the CUBS to respond on Saturday night.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Edmonton Eskimos and the BC Lions.

We think this number is just a little high. Edmonton finished 10-8 last year. QB Mike Reilly threw for over 5,500 yards and 28 TD’s. Reilly’s favorite target was Adarius Bowman, who caught 120 passes for 1,761 yards and nine major scores. RB John White was also a standout for the Eskimos. The Lions finished 12-6 with QB Jon Jennings throwing for 5,200 yards. WR Chris Williams has come over from Ottawa and is expected to be a standout this year. RB Jeremiah Johnson rounds out a strong offensive unit. Note though that Edmonton has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 as an underdog, while BC has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four games played in the month of June. These are two explosive offenses, but we’re expecting each to come out a little “flat footed” in the season opener and we look for this total to sneak UNDER this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports