Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is a 10* on UNDER

We are coming off a couple huge wins in the NHL. It was 8-0 last night with Tampa Bay. The night before last we won our 10* Game of the Year with Vegas. For the Golden Knights, that overtime victory evened this series up at two games each. The big story was the decision to start Robin Lehner in goal. After a disastrous start in Game 1 of the Colorado series, Lehner stopped 27 of 28 shots in Game 4 vs. Montreal. We don’t know for sure who will be starting Game 5 for Vegas - Lehner or Fleury - but either way we know we’ve got a solid goaltender between the pipes. This is not a game where we see more than five total goals getting scored. The Under is 3-0-2 in Montreal’s last five, so there has not been more than five total goals scored in any game of this series, obviously. Game 4 was the lowest scoring one yet with just three goals, including OT. Both teams are giving up just 2.3 goals per game in the postseason. We don’t see the winning side having to score more than two goals to take tonight’s game. The Habs’ Carey Price has a .931 save percentage in these playoffs. The Under is 23-6-7 in Montreal’s last 36 games as a playoff underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND

Oakland lost Monday, 8-3 to the Rangers. Because of that they’re now a game back (of Houston) in the AL West. We expect them to bounce back Tuesday. The last three times Cole Irvin has started a game for the A’s, they’ve been victorious. He’s on the hill tonight. Irvin didn’t have his best stuff in his last start when he gave up four runs. But the two before that were both quality outings. Texas was originally set to go with Jordan Lyles, but now it’s Taylor Hearn, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Hearn has never started a game before at the big league level. The Rangers are the last place team in the division and with a 10-game gap to make up, that’s where they will likely stay for the remainder of 2021. They’d lost six games in a row going into Monday. Oakland has now lost three in a row for just the the third time since starting the year 0-6. Each of the previous two times, they’ve responded by winning. In fact, we took them the last time they were in the situation and it was a 12-6 win against Seattle. The A’s are 8-1 this year as road favorites of -125 to -175. They are in that range today. Play on OAKLAND

AAA

This is a 7* on HOUSTON

They were such an easy winner yesterday, why not go with the Astros again today? We can’t believe they’re not north of -200 on the money line. As previously discussed, the two teams here are going in very opposite directions. Coming off last night’s win and an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won eight in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by a game over the Athletics, and have the best run differential in the sport right now (+120). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-24 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Pitching today for the Astros will be Greinke. Since we were willing to take Jake Odorizzi yesterday, taking Greinke is a no-brainer. He has an 11-4 TSR. On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Jorge Lopez goes for Baltimore. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three starts. Can you say “mismatch?” Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS

AAA

This is a 10* on ENGLAND

There has been much consternation surrounding The Three Lions following their failure to defeat Scotland last Friday. It was a goalless draw, leaving England level with their final opponent in the group stage (Czech Republic) at 4 points apiece. The good news is that Gareth Southgate’s side kept its fourth straight clean sheet and remains in solid position to advance to the Round of 16. But that’s not the end goal in Euro 2020 and our opinion is that England is going to be “out for blood” in this final match of the group stage. A win and a draw may not be enough to satisfy the English fans, but for Czech Republic, it’s a pleasant surprise. They were underdogs in each of the first two matches, a 2-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Croatia. With an expected goal difference of -0.5, the general consensus is that this team has been a bit “lucky.” Keep in mind that Czech Republic was 10-1 to win Group D coming into the Tournament and north of 100-1 to win the whole thing. So they very much remain a “longshot.” They lost the possession battle against Scotland and the lone goal vs. Croatia came on a penalty. With England having yet to concede a single goal, we look for them to emerge victorious here and win Group D.  Play on ENGLAND

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