Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals got some decent pitching out of ace Max Scherzer in Friday’s 5-2 road victory. We think that the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this matchup as well. The Dodgers had won four straight before yesterday’s setback and we’re expecting another letdown here as well from the home side. For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Both come in on top form. Strasburg’s ERA is elite, but his K/9 is down from years past. Ryu was blasted in his first start of the year, but he’s since put together back-to-back strong outings. Washington’s been great on the road thus far (7-3, +3.6 units), while LA has struggled at home (4-6, -6.9 units). We like Strasburg to match Ryu and in a scenario like that, we think the value swings to the hard-hitting visitors. Play on the NATIONALS.

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This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We like the hard-hitting home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (1-1, 5.73 ERA) who in his most recent action gave up four earned runs off seven hits while walking three and striking out three over five innings in a fortunate no-decision (including serving up two home runs.) Richard was a complete train-wreck in 2017 by going 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA overall and a terrible 1-8 with a 5.34 ERA on the road. Arizona turns to Zack Godley (2-1, 3.00) who comes in off an outing to forget as well, giving up five runs off five hits while striking out six over four innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Sunday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Godley over the last two years though and there’s definitely no reason at all not to think that he won’t bounce back right away (note that he was 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA at home last year.) Additionally note that SD is just 4-9 (-2.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is a near-perfect 8-1 (+8.3 units) against southpaws this year. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New York Mets.

We like the Mets to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win with their ace on the mound tonight. Jacob DeGrom (2-0, 3.24 ERA) comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Nationals on Monday, giving up three earned runs off six hits over 7.1 innings, striking out 12 and walking one. To go along wit his solid 3.24 ERA, note that DeGrom also owns an elite 1.08 WHIP. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (1-1, 5.40) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits with three walks while striking out nine over six innings. Teheran has been sharp as well of late, with back-to-back quality outings, but his ERA is still a hefty 5.40. Note that New York is 7-4 (+2.8 units) in all night games this year, while ATL is just 5-6 (-1.8 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence, play on the METS.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* play on the Cleveland Indians (4:05 EST).

We like Cleveland to bounce back from yesterday’s 3-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (1-0, 2.70 ERA) who comes in on seven days rest, the result of two different postponements over the last week. In his previous outing he wasn’t spectacular, giving up four runs over four innings while striking out five in what turned out to be an 8-4 loss to the Blue Jays. With the extra time off to focus and prepare, we think Clevinger will bounce back nicely here, note that he was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Chris Tillman (0-3, 11.91) who was rocked for six runs off seven hits with two walks and no K’s in a loss to Boston on Friday. Tillman has now been shelled for 14 runs off 22 hits spanning 11.1 innings of work. After posting a 7.84 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over 19 starts last season, it would appear that Tillman is even worse off this year. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying this larger price on the hard-hitting and revenge-minded visitors. Play on the INDIANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies cruised to the 2-1 victory yesterday and we think the offer great value in this spot as well. Pittsburgh hands the ball to Steven Brault (2-1, 4.74 ERA), who most recently gave up five runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to Colorado on Monday. Brault struck out just one. Brault had an impressive debut, but since then he’s quickly come back down to Earth, getting rocked for nine runs over his last two outings. Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.22) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently took a loss after giving up two runs off four hits and two K’s over six innings against the Braves on Monday. Nola comes in on top form having now throw two quality starts in a row. We like the home side to build off yesterday’s win with what we believe to be the superior hurler on the hill for it in this matchup. Lay the price, play on the PHILLIES.

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