Art Aronson Handicapper at AAA Sports

1* FREE PLAY UNDER.

Florida has struggled with offensive consistency in this series, finding the back of the net just 3 times over the first 3 games. The Lightning are in the drivers seat, but the "under" has hit in 6 of the last 8 in this series. I'm expecting an absolute war from the moment the puck is dropped, but a battle that stays "under" the number once the final horn blares.

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10* BLUES PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN)

The Avs have a 2-1 series lead here after their 5-2 victory in Game 3. St. Louis though is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a 3 goals or greater home loss against an opponent. This has been a very competitive series. Despite the lop-sided loss last time out, Blues' goaltender Jordan Binnington still ranks No. 1 in the playoffs with a 1.72 GAA. It's do or die for Binnington and company (essentially.) In a game that I see being decided late (or even in extra time), I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket; the play is St. Louis on the puckline!

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10* CELTICS (RD)

This has been a back-and-forth series and I'm looking for Game 4 to follow suit. The Celtics will be risking life and limb today to try and even this series back up. Off the 109-103 Game 3 loss, note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 105 or less points in. Boston still ranks first across most defensive stats, including leading the league in scoring defense. The Celtics are also 5-0 ATS in their last five following a SU loss. Look for the home side to double down defensively and then to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover; the play is the Celtics!

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10* OVER (BOB)

These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end in the opener of this three-game series. The Guardians are off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA for the Guardians this year, but he's 0-2 with a ballooned 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab. He's 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Garcia took a step back in his last outing though, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Two teams in dire need of a victory here. Two starters who are on the decline. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later.

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