The Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) hit the road this weekend for a tough SEC West matchup against the #7 overall Auburn Tigers (4-0). Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 28th at Jordan-Hare Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Auburn opened as a 10.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has increased by half a point after early betting, as the Tigers are currently listed at -11. The total for the game is sitting at 47 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Auburn vs Mississippi State
Mississippi State improved to 3-1 on the season overall last weekend after defeating Kentucky 28-13 at home. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the first half and managed to hang on over the final two quarters despite getting outscored 10-7 by the Wildcats. QB Garrett Shrader didn’t have his best game through the air, passing for 180 yards and no touchdowns while also getting picked offence. However, Shrader did lead the way on the ground for MS State, racking up 125 rushing yards on only 11 carries. RB Kylin Hill also had a big day rushing the football, gaining 120 yards and scoring three touchdowns on a game-high 26 carries. Overall, Mississippi State generated well over 400 total yards of offense against an above average Kentucky defense.
The Bulldogs were very solid on the other side of the ball in Week 4, holding the Wildcats offense to only one touchdown on almost 400 total yards. Mississippi State was very tough against the pass, as they didn’t allow a single touchdown through the air and also forced an interception.
Auburn won their fourth consecutive game in Week 4, beating #23 overall Texas A&M 28-20 on the road to improve to 4-0 overall. The Tigers held a 14-3 lead at the half and never looked back, scoring seven unanswered points in the third quarter en route to victory. QB Bo Nix was 12/20 for 100 yards and a touchdown, while the duo of JaTarvious Whitlow and Anthony Schwartz combined for 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. WR Seth Williams also had an impressive outing, hauling in four passes for 47 yards and a score. As a whole, Auburn gained almost 300 yards of total offense and scored four touchdowns against a very solid Aggies defense.
The Tigers defense was fairly solid in Week 4, holding a highly-skilled Texas A&M offense to under 400 total yards and just two touchdowns. However, Auburn did give up a big game to Aggies QB Kellen Mond, who passed for 335 yards and two scores.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: MS State +11
Even though I think that Auburn will most likely win this game outright – especially since they are at home this weekend – I’m not so sure that they will be able to cover a pretty substantial 11-point spread against a solid Bulldogs team. I wouldn’t be interested in Mississippi State if the spread drops below 10.5, but at 11 I think there is enough value to roll with the road underdog. It is also worth noting that the Tigers have not performed well against the spread in this particular matchup as of late, going just 2-5 ATS over their last five meetings with MS State.
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While Auburn is a perfect 4-0 straight up so far this season, they haven’t exactly been blowing good teams out of the water either. They barely managed to beat Oregon in Week 1 and only beat the Aggies by eight points last weekend after a bit of a let down in the second half. Mississippi State has also been solid on both sides of the ball through four games, losing to #24 overall Kansas State by just a touchdown back in Week 3. All things considered, I think nabbing the Aggies at anything above +10.5 is the best play in this spot. I’ll take a shot with the points and the road underdog here in Week 5 – give me Mississippi State to cover.