This Saturday the No. 11 Auburn Tigers will host the Ole Miss Rebels in a SEC West showdown. Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST at Jordan-Hare Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.

Oddsmakers opened up this game at Auburn -18.5 and it’s all over the place right now. You can still get the Tigers at -18.5 at one book, while others have this at -19.5 and even -20. The total opened at 52.5 and that’s where it stands right now.

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Auburn vs Ole Miss Vegas Odds Preview

Ole Miss Rebels (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)

The Rebels will be returning from their bye week looking to get back on track. Ole Miss has lost two straight and four of their last 5. Last time we saw the Rebels they suffered a tough 24-17 loss at home to Texas A&M, just missing out on a fourth straight cover as a 6-point dog.

Ole Miss still has 4 games to get 3 wins to reach bowl eligibility, but will need to pull off a massive upset to get there. Not only do they have this game at Auburn, but they also host undefeated LSU in a couple weeks. They also would need to win at rival Mississippi State in the finale.

Auburn Tigers (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS)

The Tigers come into this one off a crushing 23-20 loss at LSU, but did manage to cover as a 12.5-point underdog. It was a bit of a fortunate cover given the lopsided box score, as LSU had a 508 to 287 edge in total yards and 30-16 advantage in first downs.

With that said, the fact that Auburn had to covered shouldn’t have come as a big shocker, as the Tigers are an impressive 7-1 ATS on the season. The big question is now that they are all but out of the SEC West race, will they continue to be a strong bet against the number the final month of the regular season.

Matchup History

Auburn won 31-16 at Ole Miss last year as a mere 5-point favorite. That was the Tigers third straight win in the series. It also marked the 4th time in the last 5 meetings between these two that the road team won outright.

Free Betting Pick & Predictions: Ole Miss +20

My early lean here would be to take the points with Ole Miss. I just think there’s a ton of hidden value here with the Rebels, as this is an absolutely brutal spot for Auburn. The Tigers are coming off that emotional loss to LSU, a game they absolutely had to have to have any shot at winning the SEC West. Bouncing back from that would have been tough on its own, but they also got a massive lookahead game at home next week against No. 8 Georgia.

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I think it’s asking a lot for Auburn to have win this game by three touchdowns, especially when you factor in how much this game means to Ole Miss. The Rebels have to win here to have a legit shot at making a bowl game. Another big factor in favor of Ole Miss is they are going to be well rested and prepared coming off their bye week.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a fade of Auburn. Explosive offensive teams that are averaging 34+ points/games vs average defensive teams (21-28 ppg) are just 14-40 (26%) ATS since 1992 if they are coming off a loss by 3 or less at least 7 games into the season.

Home favorites who have won 60% to 80% of their games are also just 38-76 (33%) ATS if they come in having lost two of their last three. Give me Ole Miss +20.