This Saturday there’s a huge SEC West showdown coming to College Station, as the No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies will host the No. 8 Auburn Tigers. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Kyle Field and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this line at Texas A&M -4 and that’s where the line still sits right now. The total has moved. It opened up at 50 and has dropped to 47.5 points.
Click on the link for a full look at the Week 4 college football odds and for more links to our game previews.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Auburn vs Texas A&M
So far so good for the Tigers. Auburn had that impressive 27-21 win at home over Oregon in Week 1, where they rallied from a 21-6 deficit in the 2nd half and won the game on a 26-yard TD pass by true freshman Bo Nix in the final seconds.
The Tigers followed that up with a 24-6 win as a 15-point home favorite against Tulane in Week 2 and a 55-16 thrashing of Kent State as a 36-point favorite in Week 3.
I know there’s a lot of season left, but this is one Auburn can’t afford to lose. They still got 4 more games on the schedule against teams currently ranked in the Top 10. They go at Florida and LSU before hosting Georgia and Alabama.
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies also come into this matchup off a blowout win, as they laid a 62-3 beating on Lamar at home last week. It was every bit a butt kicking as the score would lead you to believe. Texas A&M had a 633 to 197 edge in total yards and a 35-9 advantage in first downs.
I get there’s a big in talent there, but that’s a good showing for a team coming off a 24-10 loss at No. 1 Clemson the previous week. Aggies are a perfect 3-0 ATS for the year. They covered as a 16.5-point dog against the Tigers and won 41-7 as a 33.5-point favorite in Week 1 vs Texas State.
Kellen Mond has been hit or miss for the Aggies. He was great against Lamar and Texas State, but just so-so against Clemson. He’s got to have a big game for the Tigers to win this one.
Auburn has won the last two meetings. Last year the Tigers snuck out a 28-24 win as a 3.5-point favorite. Texas A&M likely hasn’t forgot about that defeat, as they led 24-14 midway through the 4th quarter. That win by Auburn snapped a crazy streak where the road team had won 6 straight in the series.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Texas A&M -4
My early lean here would be to lay the points with Texas A&M at home. Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play, especially in a big game like this. They don’t call it the “Home of the 12th Man” for nothing.
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I also think even though Texas A&M comes in ranked No. 17 and Auburn is sitting there at No. 8, I think the Aggies are the better team. The schedule is the only reason more people weren’t higher on Texas A&M coming into the year.
I love the fact that the Aggies let one get away last year. I think that only adds more motivation playing with that kind of revenge.
The other big thing for me is I think Bo Nix isn’t as good as the hype. He made a great throw to win the game against Oregon, but he was just 13 of 31 (41.9%) for a 177 yards with 2 interceptions. He only threw for 207 yards on 19 of 37 passing (51.4%) against Tulane and had just 161 yards against Kent State.
I just think he has to play great for them to win and I don’t see it happening. Not only is Kyle Field a tough place to play, but this going to be his first start in a true road game.
On top of that, Texas A&M is not letting team run on them. Aggies are only giving up 83.7 yards/game and we know they are legit against the run given they held Clemson to just 121 yards on 33 attempts (3.7 yards/carry). If they can get Auburn into some 3rd and longs, I think Nix will make a mistake or two that should give us the separation needed for the cover. Give me Texas A&M -4!