This Tuesday the Miami Redhawks (5-6) will host the Ball State Cardinals (4-7). Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST at Yager Stadium and will be televised on ESPN+.
Oddsmakers currently have the Redhawks listed as a 17-point home favorite with the total set for 54 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 13 odds and for more links to our game previews.
Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview: Miami, OH vs Ball State
The Cardinals enter off a surprising 42-41 overtime win at home over Western Michigan as a 9.5-point dog. The victory snapped an ugly 3-game losing streak, where Ball State was outscored 139 to 47, losing all 3 by at least 22 points.
Miami also comes into this one off an upset bid, as they went on the road and defeated Northern Illinois 13-7 as a 6-point dog. It wasn’t pretty for the Redhawks, who managed just 201 total yards and essentially won the game on a 28-yard pick six midway thru the 3rd quarter. With the win Miami is now just one victory away from reaching bowl eligibility and they will try to reach that mark on senior night.
Last year the Redhawks won 28-7 as a 17-point road favorite and have now won two straight in the series after losing the previous three.
Free College Football Pick & Predictions: Ball State +17
My early lean here would be to grab the points with the Ball State, as I think the books have inflated this number knowing the public will be all over Miami, seeing they need this win to become bowl eligible.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our experts on staff.
I really like what I saw from the Cardinals in last week’s game against Western Michigan. Most notably the play of sophomore quarterback Drew Plitt, who went 21 of 26 for 258 yards and 3 scores. This came after he threw for 340 yards and a score at Toledo. Turnovers have been a bit of a problem, but he’s completing 66.7% of his attempts with 8.17 yards/attempt. The guy he replaced, Riley Neal, who a lot of people liked, was only completing 57.9% with 5.72 yards/attempt.
I just think with the way Plitt is playing, it’s going to be really hard for Miami to win this game by 20+ points. I know the pass defense numbers are solid for the RedHawks, but a lot of that is just the MAC having a lot of bad passing teams and them playing Army, Minnesota and Cincinnati in non-conference. Buffalo had 358 yards passing on them a few weeks back and they gave up 300 to Bowling Green and 439 to Western Michigan.
I also think the Cardinals are playing with a ton of momentum off that overtime win against the Broncos. It’s definitely been a wise move to back them off a close win in recent years, as they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a win by 3-points or less. Ball State is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a losing home record.
As for the Redhawks, they are a mere 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after playing in a game where the two teams combined for 24 or less points.
It’s also worth noting that the underdog has covered 5 of the last 7 in the series and the road team is a solid 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Give me the Cardinals +17!