The Iowa State Cyclones (2-1) travel to Waco this weekend for a BIG 12 matchup against the Baylor Bears (3-0).  Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, September 28th at McLane Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Baylor opened as a 2.5-point home underdog earlier this week. That line hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Bears are currently listed at +2.5. The total for the game is sitting at 58 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Baylor vs Iowa State

Iowa State got back above .500 overall on the season last weekend, destroying LA-Monroe 72-20 at home to move to 2-1. The Cyclones led 27-13 at the half before exploding over the final two quarters, scoring 45 points in just 30 minutes. QB Brock Purdy was outstanding, going 21/27 for 435 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Purday also led the way on the ground, rushing for 75 yards and another three scores on only nine carries. The receiving duo of Tarique Milton and Deshaunte Jones also had a big game, combining for 242 yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, Iowa State generated more than 700 yards of total offense and scored eight touchdowns against a shell-shocked Warhawks defense.

The Cyclones were pretty solid on the other side of the ball in Week 4 as well, holding LA-Monroe to just three touchdowns despite giving up over 400 yards of total offense. While Iowa State did give up two scores through the air, they also recorded two interceptions and limited the Warhawks to only seven points in the entire second half.

Baylor won their third consecutive game last Saturday, beating Rice 21-13 on the road to improve to 3-0 overall. The Bears were double-digit favorites but still did enough to escape with the victory despite getting outscored 10-0 in the second half. QB Charlie Brewer was 20/27 for 303 yards and a touchdown throwing the football and also racked up 58 yards and a touchdown on 12 rushing attempts. Denzel Mims and Chris Platt had a strong showing, combining for 187 receiving yards and a touchdown. Overall, Baylor gained over 400 total yards of offense and scored three touchdowns against a feisty Owls defense.

The Bears defense was outstanding in Week 4, holding Rice to under 250 total yards of offense and allowing just a single touchdown. Baylor was very solid against both the run and the pass, giving up only 178 yards through the air and just 64 net rushing yards.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Iowa State -2.5

This should be a highly entertaining matchup between two BIG 12 rivals that are both opening up their conference schedules on Saturday. While I certainly don’t think there is a ton of value in this particular spot on either side, I’m still leaning towards Iowa State if this spread stays under three points. I think the Cyclones are the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on offense where they have scored 119 points in only three games. While Baylor also looked pretty strong on offense to open the regular season, I am a bit concerned with how much they struggled against Rice last weekend. While the Bears still escaped with the victory, they only managed to win by eight points in a game they were favored in by 26.5.

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Iowa State could also easily be 3-0 right now, as they lost to #16 overall Iowa by just a single point back in Week 3. Even though the Cyclones are only 2-6 ATS over their past eight games, they are also a very solid 6-1 straight up over their last seven conference games. On the other side, Baylor is just 3-8 against the spread over their last 11 home games. Again, as long as this spread doesn’t increase to a full field goal before kickoff, I feel a touch more comfortable rolling with the road favorites on Saturday afternoon. I’ll take the Cyclones to cover!