The #6 Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) host the Baylor Bears (3-1) on Saturday afternoon in Big 12 action. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and the game will be available on ABC.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Oklahoma opened as a 21.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has increased by a full two points after early betting, as the Sooners are currently listed at -23.5. The total for the game is sitting at 69 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Oklahoma vs Baylor
Baylor opened their Big 12 schedule with an impressive 26-7 win over the Kansas Jayhawks last weekend. QB Charlie Brewer played a huge role in the Bears success in Week 4, throwing for 221 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 56 yards after RB JaMycal Hasty was forced to miss the first half of the game after an altercation against TCU during the 2017-18 season. WR Jalen Hurd leads the way for the receiving corps, catching 22 passes for 311 yards and two touchdowns over the past four weeks. Baylor is currently averaging an impressive 486.8 total yards per game on the season which is 28th overall nationwide. They are also averaging 36.3 points per game (40th overall).
The Bears have been fairly average defensively, allowing opponents to score an average of 23.5 points per game on 347.8 total yards. They have looked pretty good against the pass, allowing just 181.5 yards through the air per game. However, they have struggled a bit against the run, giving up 166.3 yards per game on the ground.
Oklahoma had a pretty big scare against the Army Black Knights last weekend, barely escaping with a 28-21 win in overtime. Army certainly gave the Sooners all they could handle, possessing the ball for a very impressive 75% of the game and controlling the clock masterfully. QB Kyle Murray went 11 for 15 while adding 165 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Oklahoma has one of the best offenses in the entire country, averaging 44.3 points per game on 502.3 total yards. They also have averaged 8.4 yards per play and look electric pretty much every time they touch the field. Their rushing game has been especially impressive, as they are gaining an average of 214 yards on the ground per game.
The Sooners have looked slightly above average on defense, although they have struggled a little bit against the rush. Oklahoma is currently surrounding an average of 20.8 points per game on 383.3 total yards. Opponents have been able to move the ball on the ground though, averaging 171.8 rushing yards per game.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Oklahoma -23.5
Despite starting their season 3-1, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding Baylor. There three victories game against Abilene Christian, UTSA, and Kansas – hardly college football powerhouses. While Oklahoma did have a lot of trouble getting past Army last weekend, I think it will be a big wake-up call for a team that has very real College Football Playoff aspirations. I think they will want to put on a show at home against a Big 12 rival to fully demonstrate how much of a fluke Week 4 was.
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Oklahoma has performed marvelously against the spread lately, going 12-3 ATS over their past fifteen games against teams with winning records and 12-4 ATS in their last sixteen home games. Baylor is only 2-4-1 ATS over their past seven games and 4-8-1 ATS in their last thirteen games on the road. They are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.
The Sooners shouldn’t have any trouble putting up at least 45 points in this one against a middle of the road Baylor defense. The Bears have yet to face a real test outside of a game against #22 ranked Duke, which was their only loss of the season. The fact that the Blue Devils put up 40 points with their backup quarterback drawing the start in that contest sets off big alarm bells for me, as Oklahoma has a much stronger offense. Kyle Murray is the exact definition of a dual-threat quarterback, as he is currently the Sooners second leading rusher on the season. Murray is averaging 60.0 yards per game on the ground and has already rushed for three touchdowns. If Oklahoma can find a way to shore up their run defense, they should have no problem winning by 25+ points in front of a home crowd. I’ll lay the points and look for the Sooners to improve to 5-0 this weekend.