The TCU Horned Frogs hope to lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game when they host the Baylor Bears. Game time is set for noon EST on Friday, November 24 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The game can be seen on FS1.
Oddsmakers list the Horned Frogs as 24-point favorites at home. The game has an over/under of 50.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of Week 13 betting odds and links to game previews.
Baylor vs TCU Vegas Odds & Game Preview
After beating Texas Tech last week, TCU is one win away from getting a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs were able to last week without starting quarterback Kenny Hill. Freshman Shawn Robinson stepped in and got the job done, in large part because of his mobility. However, Hill has a good chance to play against Baylor, giving him the chance to lead TCU to the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Bears, meanwhile, will be glad to see this season come to an end. Baylor is just 1-10 in Matt Rhule’s first season in Waco, with their only win coming against Kansas. Of course, while this has been a long season for Baylor, the Bears showed no signs of giving up last week against Iowa State, so they should be motivated to play hard this week and spoil TCU’s season.
These two teams have a longstanding rivalry that pre-dates their days in the Big 12. If the Bears win on Friday, they will tie the all-time series with 53 wins apiece. However, the Horned Frogs have won six of the last nine meetings, including the last two years.
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Baylor +24
Record-wise, this looks like a mismatch, but I’m not sure it warrants a spread this big. TCU hasn’t typically blown out teams this season and surprisingly Baylor hasn’t lost that many lopsided games. The Bears had a chance to take down Iowa State last week, and I’ll lean toward Baylor to play hard and keep this game competitive as well.
Baylor freshman quarterback Charlie Brewer had one of his best games last week against a tough Iowa State defense. He didn’t put up big numbers but he was accurate and efficient with the ball. To be fair, the TCU defense is probably a little better than Iowa State’s defense. But I’ll still give Brewer a chance to play well and keep his team in the game.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
I’m also not sure about TCU’s offense scoring enough points to cover this spread without the defense pitching a shutout, which I think is unlikely. The Horned Frogs have impressive offensive numbers on the season, but much of that came early in the season. In five of their eight Big 12 games, they’ve been held under 30 points. If that trends to continue, it’s going to be difficult for the Horned Frogs to cover a 24-point spread.
There’s also at least a chance that Hill doesn’t play. Robinson played well enough for TCU to score points against a terrible Texas Tech defense last week, but he didn’t exactly have a great day throwing the ball. He should be able to make enough plays to beat Baylor if he gets the start. However, without explosive plays in the passing game, it’ll be tough for the Horned Frogs to cover.
Finally, you have to look at Baylor’s consistency this year in keeping games close. Even with 10 losses on the season, only two of those losses, Oklahoma State and Texas, came by more than 24 points. That’s enough to make me think that this spread is way too big, so I’ll take my chances with the Bears keeping this game close.