The Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2) face the #22 overall Baylor Bears (5-0) this weekend for a BIG 12 showdown in Waco. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM EST on Saturday, October 12th at McLane Stadium and the game will be televised on FS1.

Taking a look at the Week 7 college football odds, Baylor opened as a 10-point home favorite earlier this week. That spread has increased by half a point after early betting, as the Bears are currently listed at -10.5. The total for the game is sitting at 60 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Baylor vs Texas Tech

Texas Tech snapped a two game losing skid last weekend, beating Oklahoma State 45-35 at home to move back above .500 overall on the season. The Red Raiders held a 20-7 lead at the half and held on for the win over the final two quarters despite getting outscored 28-25 by the Cowboys over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Jett Duffey went 26/44 for 424 passing yards and four touchdowns while also finding the end zone once on the ground. The dynamic receiving duo of T.J. Vasher and Erik Ezukanma also had a big outing, combining for 202 yards and two touchdowns on 8 catches. As a whole, Texas Tech generated almost 600 total yards of offense and scored five touchdowns in the double-digit victory.

The Red Raiders defense had a rough outing against Oklahoma State, giving up well over 500 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. Texas Tech really struggled trying to slow down Cowboys RB Chuba Hubbard, who rushed for 156 yards and three touchdowns on a game-high 34 carries.

Baylor is still undefeated through their first five games of the season after an impressive 31-12 road victory over Kansas State. The Bears trailed by a field goal at the end of the quarter but took total control of the game after that, outscoring the Wildcats 31-9 the rest of the way. QB Charlie Brewer went 14/23 for 230 yards and a touchdown through the air while John Lovett recorded a multi-touchdown day on the ground. Tyquan Thornton also got in on the act, hauling in four receptions for 92 yards and a score. Overall, Baylor racked up over 400 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns in the lopsided victory.

The Bears were very strong on the other side of the ball against Kansas State, holding the Wildcats to well under 350 total yards of offense and allowing just a single touchdown. Baylor was especially strong defending against the run, as they didn’t give up any touchdowns on the ground and surrendered under 125 rushing yards.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Baylor -10

I’m leaning towards eating the chalk in this BIG 12 matchup on Saturday afternoon. as I think that the Bears have been the more consistent team on both sides of the ball. While Texas Tech has had some big performances through their first five games as well, they seem to struggle a little bit against teams with a winning record. Not only did they get crushed 55-16 by #6 Oklahoma back in Week 5, they also lost by two touchdowns to Arizona in the middle of September. Their victory over Oklahoma State last weekend was really the only solid opponent they have managed to play well against so far this entire season.  On the other side, Baylor has won four out of their last five games by at least a touchdown and still hasn’t lost outright since the 2018 regular season.

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The Red Raiders have also really struggled on the road as of late, going just 1-4 against the spread over their last five games away from Jones AT&T Stadium. They are also only 3-7 straight up in their last ten games overall. On the other side, Baylor is a very solid 5-2 against the spread over their last seven games overall. They are also a perfect 7-0 straight up in their last seven outings. Ultimately, I think the Bears offer the best value in this spot – especially since they are at home here in Week 7. I’m going to lay the 10 points and roll with the undefeated home favorite – give me Baylor cover!