The Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) host the Miami Dolphins (3-1) on Sunday afternoon in an all-AFC matchup. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, October 7th at Paul Brown Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Bengals listed as as 5.5-point home favorites. That line has remained relatively unchanged after early betting, as Cincinnati is currently available at -6. The total for this matchup is 50.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 5 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Bengals vs Dolphins Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Miami lost their first game of the season last weekend, getting embarrassed 38-7 by the New England Patriots. The Dolphins definitely had a chance to make a big statement against a hated divisional foe that has had their number for the better part of a decade. Brady and Co. showed that their reign in the AFC South isn’t over just yet, as Miami was outclassed on both sides of the ball all game long. QB Ryan Tannehill only completed just over 50% over his throws and barely reached 100 yards through the air against a Pats D that has struggled to defend against the pass all season long. Tannehill should be able to rebound this weak against a suspect Bengals secondary that just gave up monster games to Carolina and Atlanta in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins have really had a hard time trying to rush the ball, as they are currently averaging just 88.0 yards per game (25th overall).
On the other side of the ball, Miami has held opponents to 22.5 points per game (14th) on 395.3 total yards. They have really been exposed through the air, as opponents are averaging a whopping 284.8 passing yards per game (26th). However, the Dolphins have been much better against the run, limiting opponents to an average of just 110.5 yards per game on the ground (20th). LB Kiko Alonso has played quite well over his first four games of the season, racking up 46 tackles.
Cincinnati pulled off an incredible road victory over the Atlanta Falcons last weekend, escaping the Mercedes Benz Dome with a 37-36 comeback win to improve to 3-1. The Bengals trailed pretty much all game before storming all the way back to take the lead with just 7 seconds left in the 4th quarter. They now have accumulated at least 34 points in each of their three wins on the season. QB Andy Dalton seems to have really turned a corner this year, passing for 1,197 yards and 11 touchdowns in just four games. Dalton has also thrown two or more touchdown passes in 11 of his last 15 games. However, he does still struggle with interceptions at times, including one against the Falcons last weekend. The Bengals also lost TE Tyler Eifert for the year after he suffered a horrific ankle injury in Week 4. Eifert has a ton of talent, but has unfortunately only managed to suit up for 14 games over the past three seasons. As a whole, Cincinnati is currently averaging 30.5 points per game, which is 4th overall in the NFL.
The Bengals have definitely taken a step back defensively, as opponents are averaging 28.3 points per game (23rd) on 419.3 total yards (29th). While they have looked somewhat average against the run, Cincinnati has been getting torched through the air – opponents are currently averaging 303.5 yards per game through the air (28th).
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Cincinnati -6
I want to start by saying that I actually like the over on 50.5 a lot in this particular spot as well. Cincinnati has been allowing almost 30 points per game against and has been averaging just as many against defenses much better than the Dolphins – like when they put up 30+ against Baltimore in Week 2. Miami should certainly be able to put at least 24-27 points on the board, while I’m expecting the Bengals to score at least 30 yet again this week. In any event, Cincinnati has really shown they are contenders in the AFC North this year and should have a ton of momentum after an unexpected road victory over Atlanta in Week 4. Dalton has showed remarkable consistency and has been airing it out with ease to Green, Boyd, and Ross all season long.
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Miami is just 3-8 ATS over their past 11 games against teams with a winning record and 5-16 ATS in their past 21 games on field turf. They are also a very alarming 1-6 ATS over their past seven road games. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS over their past five home games, 7-0 ATS over their past seven games against AFC teams, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
The Bengals are playing at home, still have a ton to play for in the AFC North, and have a great group of young receivers that have been an absolute treat to watch. Miami, on the other hand, is still experiencing growing pains and just showed how far away they are from dethroning the New England Patriots in the AFC South. Cincinnati should be able to create some distance on the scoreboard in the second half en route to a 7+ point victory. Give me the Bengals.