This Sunday the New England Patriots will host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6 action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have New England as a 9-point favorite with the total at 47 points.

Bengals vs Patriots Vegas Odds Preview

Cincinnati (2-3) will look to bounce back from an ugly 14-28 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. The final score doesn’t do justice to how bad the Bengals played. The Cowboys had a commanding 28-0 lead going into the 4th quarter.

New England (4-1) didn’t disappoint in Tom Brady’s return to the field. The Patriots went on the road and defeated the Browns 33-13. Brady threw for 406 yards and 3 TD’s and the Pats had a 501 to 262 edge in total yards.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams since they last met in the regular season back in 2014. The Patriots won that game at home 43-17 as a 3-point dog.

Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: Bengals +9

As difficult as it is to go against the Patriots, I think it’s the smart play in this one. New England just covered as a double-digit road dog against the Browns. A game the public was all over. There’s zero doubt in my mind this line is inflated, as the public will fire right back on New England. I believe the books have set a number here they are confident Cincinnati can cover.

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I do think the Bengals came into this season a bit overrated. However, they aren’t as bad as they looked last week against the Cowboys. That embarrassing showing is going to have them coming out with a chip on their shoulder. Not to mention they desperately don’t want to fall to 2-4 with how things are playing out in the AFC.

I’m not saying this will be the case, but it’s something to consider. The Patriots clearly invested a lot of energy into Brady’s return last week. Some kind of letdown is too be expected. Plus, they have a massive road game on deck against the Steelers. A game you know they have circled with all the hype about Pittsburgh’s offense.

You also have to factor in the Patriots looked great against the Browns. The only winless team in the league. I know they are returning home and the crowd is going to be electric, but 9-points is a lot in the NFL. Especially against a legit team like the Bengals.

You might be surprised to see that Cincinnati is 10th in total offense and 11th in total defense. That’s not the makeup of a team that should be getting more than a touchdown. They have the passing attack that can keep them in it. The defense should also play better this week. New England doesn’t have near the offensive line that Dallas does.

We also have a strong system backing a play on the Bengals. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, who have won between 25% and 40% of their games, are 104-59 (64%) ATS since 1983 off a road loss.