This Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) will host the Buffalo Bills (3-1). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Paul Brown Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.
Oddsmakers currently have Cincinnati listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 39.5 points. Click on the link for our Week 5 NFL betting lines, schedule and more links to game previews.
Bills vs Bengals Vegas Game Preview & Betting Predictions
Buffalo continued it’s surprising start to the season with a 23-17 win on the road over the Falcons as a 8-point road underdog. That came just one week after the Bills beat the Broncos 26-16 as a 3-point home dog. Buffalo is now a perfect 4-0 ATS in 2017.
The Bengals avoided an 0-4 start with a convincing 31-7 win on the road over division rival Cleveland, easily covering as a mere 3.5-point road favorite. It was a great response for Cincinnati, who let one get away in Week 3 at Green Bay.
These two teams have played each of the last two seasons. The road team won and covered both of those meetings. The Bengals won 34-21 as a 3-point road favorite in 2015 and the Bills won 16-12 as a 2.5-point road dog last year.
NFL Betting Predictions & Free ATS Pick: Bengals -3
I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons.
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A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown.
The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines, and starting safety Micah Hyde are both questionable and Hyde’s backup, Colt Anderson is doubtful.
Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews.
I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week.
It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal.
Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half.