The Indianapolis Colts (1-5) host the Buffalo Bills (2-4) on Sunday afternoon in an all-AFC clash. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on October 21st at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game will be televised on FOX.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Colts listed as 7.5-point home favorites. That line has remained unchanged changed after early betting, as Indianapolis is currently available at -7.5. The total for this matchup is 43 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 7 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Colts vs Bills Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Buffalo dropped to 2-4 on the season after a tough 20-13 loss on the road to Houston last weekend. The Bills played solid football for four straight quarters but couldn’t find a way to put up enough points on the scoreboard, especially in the first half of the game where they had no offensive output whatsoever. QB Josh Allen has struggled all season long, throwing for just 832 yards and two touchdowns. Allen has also already thrown five interceptions and has a QBR of only 61.8. He was injured in the game against the Texans and will be replaced by veteran QB Derek Anderson in Week 7. Over the last three games, Buffalo is only averaging 10.8 points per game on 204.8 total yards. They could be in for another long day offensively on Sunday with Anderson at the helm, although at least they aren’t forced to start Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman again.

Things have gone a little bit better on the other side of the ball, as the Bills are currently giving up a respectable average of 23.0 points per game (12th) on 311.7 total yards. Buffalo has really excelled against the pass, giving up only 219.2 yards per game through the air (6th).

Indianapolis lost their fourth straight game last weekend, falling 42-34 to the Jets in a surprisingly entertaining offensive shootout. The Colts had there chances to escape New York with a victory but couldn’t find a way to avoid costly turnovers at inopportune times. QB Andrew Luck passed for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in a losing effort, although he did also get picked off three times. Luck has now thrown for 1,792 yards and 16 touchdowns in six games so far this season. He certainly misses WR T.Y. Hilton, who has been sidelined with an injury for the past several weeks. Luck is also expected to be without TE Jack Doyle yet again this weekend, although Eric Ebron has performed extremely well in his absence. Overall, Indianapolis is currently averaging 25.3 points per game (13th overall) on 369.2 total yards.

The Colts have really struggled on the other side of the ball this year, as they are currently giving up a troubling 30.0 points per game (30th overall) on 386.8 total yards. They have really struggled to defend against the pass, allowing opponents to throw for an average of 280.0 yards per game through the air (26th overall).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo +7.5

This is arguably one of the least exciting matchups here in Week 7 of the NFL season, although there is still some value to be found in this particular spot. The Colts are just 1-5 and have one of the worst defenses in the entire league. They currently rank almost dead last in every single defensive category and have looked dreadful outside of Week 2 victory over Washington. Buffalo hasn’t looked great either, especially offensively where it’s been a revolving door at quarterback. Derek Anderson certainly isn’t the answer, but it isn’t exactly like Josh Allen was playing all that well either. I think the Bills defense is talented enough to keep this game close – I don’t think the Colts deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown after allowing 35+ points in three consecutive games.

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Indianapolis is just 1-4 ATS over their past five games in October. They are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-4 ATS so far this season. Buffalo is a very solid 3-0-1 ATS over their last four games in October and 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight up loss. The Bills are also 4-2 ATS over their past six road games.

I’m certainly not saying that the Bills will pull off the upset this weekend, although they did manage to do so against Minnesota on the road back in Week 3. Any defense that allowed the Jets to put up 40+ points certainly doesn’t deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt against any opponent, even if that team happens to be Buffalo. Things can’t get much worse on offense for the Bills right now and they still managed to stay within a touchdown of Houston on the road last weekend. They also beat a solid Tennessee team in a defensive battle back in Week 5. I’m going to take the free points in this spot and look for Buffalo to keep it close before eventually losing by a touchdown or less.