The Dallas Cowboys are set to host the Buffalo Bills in the second of three games scheduled for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Kickoff is set for 4:30 EST at AT&T Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened up this line at Dallas -7.5, but it’s been dropping. While some books have the Cowboys at -7, others have them below the key number at -6.5. The total opened at 45 and is anywhere from 45.5 to 46.5 depending on where you shop.
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Game Preview & Vegas Betting Odds: Bills vs Cowboys
Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS)
The Bills come into this one off an easy 20-3 win and cover at home against the Broncos as a 3.5-point home favorite. It felt like an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Buffalo had a massive 424 to 134 edge in total yards.
Denver’s offense only managed 9 first downs for the game, while Buffalo’s offense imposed their will with a season-high 244 yards rushing (previous best was 175 in week 3 against the Bengals).
The Bills critics will point to Buffalo racking up another win against a bad team. There’s definitely some truth to that. The schedule has been about as easy as it gets. However, it hasn’t kept Buffalo from cashing tickets, as they are now 7-3-1 ATS on the season, which includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last 4 games.
Dallas Cowboys (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Dallas will be looking to bounce back from a hard fought 13-9 loss at New England. The Cowboys did manage to cover in the defeat, as they closed as a 5-point favorite. Dallas has been a very profitable bet of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
While all we care about is who covers the game, the Cowboys won’t be taking any pride in a close loss. The league’s top ranked offense met its match, as Bill Belichick’s defense limited them to just 321 yards and for the first time this season they failed to find the endzone.
Despite a mere 6-5 record, the Cowboys do hold the top spot in the NFC East, as they are 1-game up on the Eagles. While the two still have to play in Philly in Week 16, Dallas does hold the tie-breaker for the time being with an earlier win at home against the Eagles.
Buffalo won the most recent meeting by a final score of 16-6 as a 6.5-point home favorite way back in 2015. Last time these two played in Dallas was 2011, which the Cowboys won 44-7 as a 4.5-point home favorite.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Predictions: Cowboys -6.5
My early lean here would be to lay the 6.5-points with the Cowboys at home. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.
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First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.
At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.
One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.
I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5.