The Atlanta Falcons will look to remain undefeated in Week 4 when they host the Buffalo Bills. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, October 1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The game can be seen on local CBS stations.

The Falcons are currently 8-point favorites at home. The line has moved only slightly after Atlanta opened at -8.5. The over/under for the game is 48.5 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 4 betting odds and links to more game previews.

Bills vs Falcons Game Preview & Betting Odds

Atlanta is one of just two NFL teams yet to suffer a loss the season. The Falcons have been a little fortunate to win their road games this season, pulling out a win in Week 1 against the Bears and surviving another close call last week against the Lions. But Atlanta was in complete control in Week 2 against the Packers, so perhaps the Falcons have taken a liking to their new home stadium.

The Bills, meanwhile, have surprised a lot of people by being 2-1 at this point in the season. Buffalo notched a surprising win over the Broncos last week, keeping them even with the Patriots atop the AFC East to this point in the season. Thus far, it’s been Buffalo’s defense that’s carried the team. The Bills are allowing a league-low 12 points per game through the first three weeks.

These two teams don’t often meet. However, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott spent many years as an assistant in Carolina, so he’s quite familiar with Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Bills +8

Even for an undefeated team playing at home, eight points is a lot to cover against a team with a strong defense. I’ll lean toward Buffalo to be able to keep the game close with a good defensive effort even if the Bills don’t pull off another surprising win.

At both home and on the road this season, the Atlanta offense has moved the ball effectively, averaging 29 points per game. Ryan has shown no signs of a hangover after last year’s Super Bowl, Julio Jones has continued to be a nightmare for opposing teams, and the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman continue to complement each other quite well.

That being said, I also like what I’ve seen from Buffalo’s defense this year. The Bills have 10 sacks and four interceptions over the first three games. Even on the road, the Bills have played well on that side of the ball, limiting Carolina to just nine points in Week 2. With Atlanta offensive tackle Ryan Schroeder missing a second straight game and replacement Ty Sambrailo struggling to pass protect last week, I can see the Buffalo pass rushing making things difficult for Ryan and preventing the Falcons from sustaining long drives.

Click on the link for more free NFL betting predictions from our experts on staff.

The risk here is that if Atlanta’s offense can find a rhythm, there’s no way the Bills will be able to keep up. LeSean McCoy is dangerous, but opposing teams are focusing on stopping him, as he’s averaging less than three yards per rush. Of course, the Atlanta has been a susceptible to the run at times this season, so there’s a chance the Bills are able to get McCoy going a little bit and make things easier on Tyrod Taylor and the passing game.

I’d certainly be surprised if the Bills are able to win on the road against the Falcons. But the Buffalo defense is good enough to keep them in the game. I imagine the Bills will have a chance to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter but come up short. However, that will also make it tough for the Falcons to cover the 8-point spread.