Week 9 of the NFL regular season gets underway on Thursday with an AFC East matchup, as the New York Jets (3-5) will host the Buffalo Bills (5-2). Kickoff is set for 8:25 EST at MetLife Stadium and will be televised on the NFL Network.
You are going to want to shop around if you plan on placing a wager on this game right now. Some books have the Bills listed as a 3-point favorite, while others have them laying 3.5-points. The total is setting at 43 points. Check out our Week 9 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule and more links to our game previews.
Bills vs Jets Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
Buffalo continued it’s impressive start to the season with a 34-14 win and cover as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Raiders on Sunday. The game took a big turn in favor of the Bills at the end of the 1st half when Buffalo recovered a fumble and took it 40 yards back for a touchdown with just 32 seconds left until halftime.
New York suffered another crushing loss as the Jets lost 20-25 at home to the Falcons. Whether or not the Jets covered depends on when you bet the game. New York was a short 4 to 4.5 point dog early in the week but went off as a 6.5-point dog. The Jets took an early 7-0 lead and never trailed until the 4th quarter. That’s 3 straight one-score losses for New York.
These two division rivals already played once this season, as they faced off in Buffalo back in Week 1. The Bills won that contest 21-12 as a 7-point favorite. It was a competitive game throughout, as the Jets went into the 4th quarter trailing just by just 2-points (12-14).
NFL Betting Predictions & Free ATS Pick: Jets +3.5
I would have to side with the Jets catching 3.5-points at home in this division matchup. Both of these teams have been better than I think anyone expected coming into the season. I just think Buffalo is getting a little too much respect here off their blowout win over the Raiders and the fact that they already beat these Jets by more than a touchdown earlier this season.
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I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t think New York was going to win 3 games this season and I wasn’t alone in that thought process. That’s not to say the Jets aren’t a bad team, they just aren’t as bad as everyone expected. It’s consistently had them showing great value against the spread. New York has gone 6-0-1 ATS since that Week 2 blowout loss in Oakland. I think this game could go either way and wouldn’t be shocked if this one wasn’t decided by a field goal.
I also don’t think the Bills are as good as advertised. Buffalo has been outgained in each of their last 6 games and when you look at their resume to this point they have a lot of wins over teams who are struggling in 2017, such as the Broncos, Falcons, Bucs and Raiders.
Another big key here is the huge advantage the home teams have in these Thursday games, especially this deep into the season. Just look at last week when the Ravens came out of nowhere to lay a beating on the Dolphins 40-0. Keep in mind that Miami came into that game having won 3 straight, while the Ravens were a mere 1-4 over their last 5 games.
We also find a great system in play that points to the Jets getting revenge from that Week 1 loss. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are revenging a loss to an opponent and off a cover where they lost the game outright as an underdog are 33-10 (77%) against the over the last 10 seasons. New York is also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.