The Buffalo Bills (5-9) travel to Foxborough this weekend to battle the New England Patriots (9-5) in an AFC East showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on December 23rd at Gillette Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Patriots listed as 13-point home favorites. That line has yet to change after early betting, as New England is currently available at -13. The total for this matchup is 45 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 16 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Patriots vs Bills Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Buffalo improved to 5-9 overall on the season last weekend after a hard-fought 14-13 home victory over Detroit. The Bills trailed 13-7 at halftime before scoring a fourth quarter touchdown that put them on top for good. QB Joshn Allen had another impressive game, passing for 206 yards and a touchdown while also adding another 16 yards and a score on the ground. WR Robert Foster has put up several impressive performances over the last couple of weeks, as he racked up 108 yards and a touchdown on just four receptions against the Lions. RB Keith Ford led the way on the ground, rushing for 45 yards on 14 carries. As a whole, Buffalo is currently averaging 15.4 points per game (31st overall) on 293.4 yards of total offense.
The Bills have been pretty mediocre on the other side of the ball through their first fourteen games, allowing opponents to score 23.8 points per game (18th overall) on 292.2 yards of total offense. However, they have been exceptional defending against the pass, holding opponents to just 187.4 yards per game through the air – which is 1st overall in the entire league.
New England lost their second straight game last weekend, falling 17-10 on the road against Pittsburgh. The Pats trailed 14-7 at halftime and couldn’t manage to mount a comeback in the second half, getting outscored 3-0 in the fourth quarter. QB Tom Brady certainly wasn’t at his best, going 25/36 for 279 yards and a touchdown. RB Julian Edelman led the way in the receiving game, catching seven passes for 90 yards. RB Sony Michel had the most touches on the ground, rushing for 59 yards on 13 carries. The big news on offense here in Week 16 is the departure of WR Josh Gordon, who failed the NFL’s Substance Abuse Program once again after several previous transgressions over the past five years. Gordon has been suspended indefinitely and won’t be available for at least the rest of this season. Overall, New England is currently averaging 26.7 points per game (7th overall) on 395.0 yards of total offense.
The Patriots have been pretty mediocre defensively for most of the regular season, as they are currently giving up an average of 22.1 points per game (13th overall) on 372.7 total yards of offense. They have are currently below average against both the pass and the run, ranking 23rd and 17th overall respectively.
Free NFL Betting Prediction: New England -13
While Buffalo has been on a little bit of a roll as of late, it’s important to keep things in perspective – their schedule certainly wasn’t all that formidable from Week 11 onwards. While they have really been competitive since about Mid-November, they have also played the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions. They lost to Chicago by over 30 points back in Week 10 in their last game against a team with a winning record. They also got crushed by 19 points at home by the Pats earlier this season as well.
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New England is a rock solid 14-2 ATS over their last 16 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. They are also 11-1 ATS in their past 12 home games as at least 10.5 point favorites. Finally, they are 13-3 ATS over their past 16 home games against teams with a losing record. The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an against the spread loss. They are also just 4-10 ATS over their last fourteen games against AFC East opponents.
The Pats have also owned Buffalo in this matchup over the past several seasons, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. I fully expect that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon, as Brady and Co. will be hungry for revenge after some tough outings over the last couple of weeks. I’m fine laying anything under two full touchdowns, so I’m taking New England to win by 14+ at home here in Week 16.