This Saturday the New England Patriots will host the Buffalo Bills. Kickoff for this AFC East showdown is set for 4:30 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised on the NFL Network.

Oddsmakers opened up this line at New England -7, but it’s fallen off the key number to the Patriots -6.5 or -6 depending on where you shop. The total opened at 38.5 and while some are still on that number a few have dropped it down to 37.5.

Click on the link for a full look at the Week 16 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Bills vs Patriots Game Odds & Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) 

The Bills clinched a playoff spot with a 17-10 win at Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Buffalo’s defense was outstanding in the win, as they held the Steelers to just 229 total yards and forced Pittsburgh into 5 turnovers. As good as the defense was, the Bills trailed with less than 5 minutes to go.

While Buffalo is just 1-game back of New England for the top spot in the AFC East, it’s a pretty big longshot for them to win the division. Because the Patriots will own the tie-breaker over the Bills, for Buffalo to win the division they not only need to win this game, but also have New England lose at home to the Dolphins in Week 17.

If the Bills come up short in their attempt to dethrone the Pats in the AFC East, they will go into the postseason as the No. 5 seed, meaning they will have to win 3 straight on the road to make the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS)

The Patriots avoided having to hit the panic button with a 34-13 win at Cincinnati in Week 15. The victory put an end to New Englands short two-game losing streak and most importantly kept them in prime position to not only win the AFC East, but also a first round bye in the playoffs.

Nothing is a guarantee, but New England beating the Dolphins in Week 17 at home if a division title is on the line is about as close to a sure thing as you will see in the NFL. However, a loss here could be costly. If New England loses and KC wins out, the Chiefs would leapfrog the Pats for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Matchup History

The Patriots secured their sixth straight win over the Bills back in Week 4, as they went into Buffalo and secured a 16-10 win. A win is a win, but that was a fortunate victory for New England. The Bills outgained the Patriots 375 to 224 and had 23 first downs to New England’s 11. The difference in the game was the Pats defense forced 4 turnovers and had a blocked punt they returned for a TD.

Free NFL Betting Predictions and ATS Pick: Bills +6.5

My early lean here would be to take the points with Buffalo. I just think the value is definitely with the Bills at this price. You can say what you want about who Buffalo has and hasn’t beat in their 10-4 start, they pass the eye test for me. That combined with how well the Bills played against the Pats in that earlier meeting and I think this line should be closer to 3.5-4.

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For me I just have a hard time seeing New England pulling away with how much their offense has struggled and just how good this Buffalo defense is. Keep in mind the Patriots had scored 30+ points in the 3 games leading up to their first meeting with the Bills and they did next to nothing in that game on the offensive side of the ball.

New England was able to score 34 last week at Cincinnati, but it was more of their defense than it was the offense. Patriots only had 291 yards of total offense, as they feasted off 5 Bengals turnovers, including a 64-yard pick-six by star corner Stephon Gilmore. Tom Brady was a mere 15 of 29 for 128 yards and that’s now 3 times in his last 4 games that he’s failed to simply throw for 200 yards.

I’m sure a lot of people will focus on how good the Patriots are at home and there’s no arguing the numbers, but they did just have their home winning streak snapped. Also, Buffalo had gone 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and New England is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Buffalo +6.5!