The New England Patriots (9-0) will look to keep their perfect record intact when they host the Buffalo Bills (5-4) on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised on ESPN. Taking a look at the Week 11 NFL betting odds, New England is currently listed as a 7-point home favorite with the total set at 48 points.
The Patriots come into this contest off a thrilling 27-26 win at the Giants, where they put together a 12-play 44 yard drive in the final 1:46 of regulation to set up Stephen Gostowski’s 54-yard game-winning field goal. New England did fail to cover the spread as a 7-point favorite, but are still a profitable 5-2-2 ATS on the season. The Bills went on the road and defeated the Jets 22-17 as a 2.5-point road underdog on Thursday Night Football and are now tied with the Jets for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.
This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season. The Patriots won 40-32 at Buffalo back in Week 2 as 1-point underdog. It was a more lop-sided game than the final score would indicate, as New England led 37-13 going into the 4th quarter and outgained the Bills on the game 507 to 349.
Early Lean on Bills +7
You aren’t going to make a living betting against the Patriots as long as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are around, but I think there’s too much value here to pass up on Buffalo. The Bills come into this game off back-to-back strong performances against division opponents and appear to be catching New England at the right time.
The Patriots have lost two key pieces of their offense since these two teams last played. First they lost running back Dion Lewis to a season-ending knee injury and last week they lost wide out Julian Edelman to a foot injury that figures to sideline him until at least the playoffs. Both of these players had big games against the Bills. Edelman had 11 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Lewis caught 6 passes for 98 yards and had 7 rushes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Combined that’s 235 of the 507 total yards they gained and 3 of the 4 offensive touchdowns they scored.
Road underdogs who have allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 27-7 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing an opponent that just played in a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.
Not having to worry about these two weapons, is going to allow the Bills to focus extra attention on Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. Another important thing to keep in mind, is Buffalo has the 9th ranked run defense (97.4 ypg) and are built more to stop a big back like LeGarrette Blount than they are a speedy back like Lewis. Is a big reason why Bount only had 2 carries for 4 yards in the first meeting. You also have to take into account the Patriots are dealing with a number of injuries on the offensive line. Tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon, as well as guard Tre’ Jackson are all listed as questionable. Keep in mind they have already lost center Ryan Wendell and tackle Nate Solder to season-ending injuries.
Another factor here that favors the Bills is they come into this game having had a few extra days to prepare for the Patriots having played last Thursday. It might not seem like much, but those extra days of rest and preparation are huge at this point in the season. You also have to take into account that Rex Ryan coached teams have a history of playing Brady and the Patriots tough. It won’t be easy winning in New England in a prime time game, but I don’t think it’s out of the question given the current state of the Patriots.
Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bills. Road underdogs who have allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 27-7 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing an opponent that just played in a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. We also see the Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC East.