The Buffalo Bills (1-3) host the Tennessee Titans (3-1) on Sunday afternoon in Week 5 NFL action. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, October 7th at New Era Field. The game will be televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Titans listed as as 3.5-point home favorites. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as Tennessee is currently available at -3.5. The total for this matchup is 39 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 5 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Bills vs Titans Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Tennessee improved to 3-1 on the season last weekend after a shocking 26-23 comeback victory over the defending Super Bowl champions. The Eagles had the lead for most of the game before Tennessee stormed back from a 17-3 deficit to force overtime in the last few minutes of the 4th quarter. QB Marcus Mariota was outstanding for the Titans, throwing for 344 yards and two touchdowns. He finally looks to be getting back close to 100% after an elbow injury caused him to miss a few games earlier in the season. WR Corey Davis has clearly been the most explosive part of this Tennessee offense, racking up 161 receiving yards against Philadelphia to increase his total to 312 yards through just four games. The Titans have struggled to run the ball, as neither Derrick Henry or Dion Lewis has established themselves as the lead rusher out of the backfield.

The Titans have been one of the best teams in the league defensively, giving up an average of just 18.3 points per game (6th overall) on 360.8 total yards. Tennessee has really done a nice job against the pass, allowing opponents to throw for an average of only 242.8 yards per game (11th). However, they have struggled a bit against the run, as they have been allowing 118.0 yards per game on the ground (25th overall).

Buffalo was unable to keep any momentum going from their impressive Week 3 victory over Minnesota, as they got dominated on both sides of the ball by Green Bay last weekend. The Bills couldn’t even score a field goal at Lambeau as the Packers shut them out 22-0 to improve to 2-1-1 on the season. Rookie QB Josh Allen had a rough outing, throwing for just 151 yards and giving up two interceptions. RB LeSean McCoy was expected to give the Buffalo offense a big boost after being forced to miss Week 3, but he was limited to just 24 yards on the ground. As a whole, the Bills are clearly one of the worst offensive teams in the entire NFL. Buffalo is currently averaging just 12.5 points per game (31st overall) on 220.8 total yards per game. They also have the worst passing offense in the entire league, averaging only 132.5 yards per game through the air.

The Bills have been slightly better defensively, limiting opponents to an average of 26.5 points per game (19th) on 358.3 total yards. They have been quite good as stopping the run though, holding opponents to an average of just 95.3 rushing yards per game. Their secondary has been pretty much middle of the road, allowing 263.0 passing yards per game (16th).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Tennessee -3.5

I’m actually quite surprised that the spread in this game is as small as it is, as Buffalo has been horrible this year with the exception of an impressive showing at Minnesota a few weeks ago. I know the Bills get to return home this week, but I’m not sure that will help their anemic offense. It certainly doesn’t help that Allen has to go up against one of the best defenses in the league. The Titans should have a ton of confidence after their victory over the Eagles last weekend, especially considering how well Marcus Mariota played. He looks to be nearing full health and has really found a connection with Corey Davis. I fully expect that dynamic duo to have another big outing on Sunday. 

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Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS over their past five home games against teams with a winning record. They are also only 1-4 ATS over their past five home games against the Titans. Tennessee is an impressive 7-2 ATS over their past nine games overall while also going 3-1 ATS since the start of the 2018-19 NFL season. It is also important to note that the Bills are just 1-3 ATS since the start of their season.

I know Bills Mafia usually gives their team a pretty big boost at home, but I’m not sure that they can help this offense start clicking overnight. Buffalo just got shut out by a middle of the road Packers defense and now has to face one of the top five or six scoring defenses in the entire NFL. I think Tennessee should be able to have another big game through the air against a mediocre Bills secondary. I think there is a ton of value with the Titans in this spot, as I’d be happy to lay up to 6.5 points – Tennessee should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.