This Sunday the Tennessee Titans will host the Buffalo Bills in a matchup of two potential AFC playoff teams. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Nissan Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened up this game with the Titans as a mere 1-point favorite, but early money on Tennessee has this line up to -3 at most places, though a couple still have them at -2.5. The total opened at 38.5 and that’s where it sits at most books, though there are a couple that have made the move to 39.
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Bills vs Titans Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Sometimes you can gain respect in defeat and I think that’s what happened last week with Buffalo’s 16-10 loss at home to the Patriots. Bills covered as a 7-point underdog and had their chances to win the game outright. In fact, the numbers suggest they were the better team, as they outgained New England 375 to 224 and had 23 first downs to the Patriots 11.
Turnovers and a botched special team play were what did Buffalo in. Bills threw 4 interceptions, 3 by starter Josh Allen (knocked out of the game) and 1 by backup Matt Barkley. They also had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown that put them behind the 8-ball in the 1st quarter.
I personally think that game solidifies exactly who Buffalo is. They are outstanding defensively and extremely limited offensively, which more times than not are going to result in close games that come down to who makes the fewer mistakes.
Tennessee Titans (2-2)
The Titans are coming off a much-needed 24-10 road win and cover as a 3-point dog at Atlanta. Tennessee, who upset the Browns 43-13 on the road in Week 1, had lost their previous two games, both as favorites. Huge difference between 1-3 and 2-2 going into Week 5.
A struggling Titans offenes got off to a great start against the Falcons, as Marcus Mariota hit A.J. Brown for a 55-yard score on their second possession. It was one of three TD passes by Mariota in the 1st half, which the Titans led 24-7. The concern is they didn’t score at all in the 2nd half and ended up being outgained 422 to 365.
Defense has really been the one consistent with this team. Titans are just 14th in total defense, but the stat that really matters is scoring defense and they are No. 4, allowing just 15.5 ppg.
These two teams met for the first time since 2015 last year. Buffalo won a defensive battle 13-12 at home and easily covered in the process as a 6-point underdog. It was quite the quarterback display. Allen had 82 passing yards in the win, while Mariota only finished with 129. Neither team reach 225 total yards of offense.
Free NFL Betting Prediction: Tennessee -2.5
My early lean here would be to take the Titans -2.5 at home and would still recommend this at -3. These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.
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On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.
I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.
Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2.5!