This Saturday the Boise State Broncos (10-2) will host the Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2) in the 2018 Mountain West Championship Game. Kickoff is set for 7:45 EST at Albertsons Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers have the Broncos listed as a slim 2.5-point home favorite with the total set at 50.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 14 betting schedule and for more links to our game previews.
Fresno State vs Boise State Game Preview & Betting Odds
The Bulldogs closed out the regular-season with a 31-13 win over San Jose State, but came no where close to covering as a massive 31.5-point favorite. Fresno State opened up an impressive 8-1 ATS, but have failed to cover each of their last 3 games.
The Broncos enter off a 33-24 win at home against Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State needed that game to win the division, as the Aggies entered that contest with a perfect 7-0 record in MWC play.
The only reason that game mattered is because the Broncos were defeat Fresno State on their home field a couple weeks prior. These two teams also met up in the regular-season and title game last year. This will mark the 4th time they have played each other since Nov. 25 of last season. Last year Fresno won a meaningless regular-season finale 28-17 at home, but it was the Broncos who prevailed 17-14 in the MWC title game.
NCAA Football Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Fresno State +2.5
My early lean here would be to take the 2.5-points with Fresno State, though I think the money line might bet the better option, seeing how we are getting less than a field goal.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our expert handicappers on staff.
I would expect the public to come in pretty heavy on Boise State, seeing how they won the regular-season meeting at home and are basically a pick’em in the rematch. That only makes me like Fresno State that much more, as it just feels like the books are begging for you to take the Broncos.
What a lot of people will overlook in Boise State’s 24-17 win at home over the Bulldogs back in early November is Fresno State had complete control of that game early. The Bulldogs had a 17-3 lead but Boise State scored touchdowns on each of their first 3 drives to start the 2nd half and that was all she wrote.
A lot of things went right for Boise State, as they converted on 10 of 16 3rd downs. A lot of those came on scrambles by quarterback Brett Rypien. My money is on Fresno State making the proper adjustments and getting off the field and allowing their offense a few more chances. I also think there’s a good possibility that the Bulldogs go better than 20% (2 of 10) on their 3rd down attempts.
I also think there’s a bit of an advantage here for Fresno State in that they have had the West Division locked up for a while and Boise State had to just lay everything on the line just to make it to this game. Revenge is a beautiful motivator in college football and I believe the Bulldogs are going to be celebrating a conference title on the blue turf this Saturday.
Fresno State is a 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog (2-pt favorite at Boise). Broncos are also just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games at home, so that blue turf hasn’t been all that much help at covering the number. Give me Bulldogs +2.5.