The #19 overall Boise State Broncos (11-1) host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (9-4) this weekend in the Mountain West Championship game from Idaho. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM EST on December 7th at Albertsons Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 15 college football odds, Boise State opened as a 14.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has come down by a full point after early betting, as the Broncos are currently available at -13.5. The total for the game is sitting at 64 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Boise State vs Hawaii
Hawaii has now won four games in a row after beating Army 52-31 at home last weekend to improve to 9-4 on the season overall. The Rainbow Warriors jumped out to a 24-17 lead in the first half and never looked back, outscoring the Black Knights 28-14 over the final two quarters of the game. QB Cole McDonald was fantastic, going 19/29 for 250 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air. RB Miles Reed led the way on the ground, rushing for 92 yards and a score on a team-high ten carries. Jared Smart and Cedric Byrd torched the secondary, combining for 245 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 16 catches. Overall, Hawaii gained almost 500 total yards of offense and found the end zone six times against a shell-shocked Black Knights defense.
The Rainbow Warriors didn’t have a great outing on the other side of the ball against Army, giving up well over 500 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Hawaii couldn’t find a way to slow down Black Knights RB Sandon McCoy on the ground, allowing him to rack up 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Boise State only lost won game during the regular season, finishing the year 11-1 after beating Colorado State 31-24 on the road last weekend. The Broncos jumped led 24-14 at the half and managed to hold on for the victory down the stretch despite getting outscored 10-7 over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Jaylon Henderson went 26/36 for 253 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while RB George Holani rumbled for 42 yards on a team-high 18 carries. Khalil Shakir led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in seven catches for 103 yards. As a whole, Boise State generated almost 350 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns in the win.
The Broncos were fairly average defensively against Colorado State, surrendering close to 400 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. Boise State had no answer for Trey McBride, as he exploded for 101 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 64
Despite liking Boise State to win this game outright at home, the spread doesn’t really appear to offer a lot of value on either side in this Mountain West battle. The Broncos really put on a show offensively when these two rivals met back in early October, winning 59-37 in what turned out to be a very entertaining shootout. That previous meeting definitely has me leaning towards the OVER on 64 total points scored in this particular spot, as neither team has been all that great defensively while both offenses are certainly capable of putting up a bunch of points in a hurry.
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It is important to note that these two teams have had their share of high-flying duels over the past couple of years, as the total has now gone OVER in four out of their last six meetings. The OVER has also come through in six out of Hawaii’s last eight games overall and in seven out of their last nine outings on the road as well. Finally, the OVER has hit in five out of Hawaii’s last seven games against Mountain West Conference opponents. I’m going to avoid both teams against the spread on Saturday afternoon in favor of the OVER on 64 total points scored, as it certainly looks like the optimal play in this matchup.