This Sunday the Buffalo Bills will play host to the Denver Broncos. Kickoff for this AFC matchup is set for 1:00 EST at New Era Field and will be televised locally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at Buffalo -5, but early money has come in on Denver. Most books got the Bills at -4, but some are down as low as -3.5. The total opened at 36.5 and is up slightly to 37.5.
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Broncos vs Bills Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds
Denver Broncos (3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS)
The Broncos were on the verge of a massive upset in Week 11, as they went into the half leading the Vikings 20-0 on the road as a 10.5-point underdog. While Minnesota quickly cut into the deficit to start the 2nd half, Denver still had a 23-7 edge going into the 4th quarter. That’s when things took a drastic turn for the worse. Less than 9 minutes into the final frame, the Vikings were leading 27-23 and would hold on to win by that margin.
Had the Broncos won that game they would have been sitting at 4-6 and just 2-games out of the final Wild Card spot with 6 to play. Now they are tied with the Jets for the third worst mark in the AFC and no real shot of getting back in the playoff mix. It will be interesting to see how much pride this team has over the final month and half of the regular-season.
Buffalo Bills (7-3, 6-3-1 ATS)
The Bills come into this one off a 37-20 win at Miami over the upset-minded Dolphins. Buffalo was never really in jeopardy of losing, as they jumped out to a 16-0 lead and would take a 30-14 edge into the 4th quarter. Josh Allen had one of his better days as a pro, throwing for 256 yards and 3 scores, while also rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown. John Brown also had a big day with 9 catches for 137 yards and two scores.
Say what you want about the Bills schedule, Buffalo is in prime position to make the playoffs at 7-3 and with that mark own the third best record in the AFC. The schedule does get a lot tougher for the Bills after facing the Broncos. Their next four are @ Cowboys, vs Ravens, @ Steelers and @ Patriots.
These two teams haven’t really played that much against each other. This will only be their second meeting in the last 5 years. They most recently played in 2017, which the Bills won 26-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. Buffalo has covered 5 straight in the series.
Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Bills -3.5
My early lean here would be to lay the points with Buffalo at home. I just don’t agree with the line movement in this one, as the Bills opened at -5 and are down t0 -3.5. I just think people are so quick to want to fade Buffalo because of the easy schedule they have played. I’m not about to sit here and say it hasn’t been easy or this team is as good as their 7-3 record, but this is just too good a price to pass up.
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I also think we are seeing Denver get some love due to the fact that they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog last week at Minnesota and are a perfect 2-0 ATS with Brandon Allen at quarterback for the injured Joe Flacco.
I was on Denver last week in their near upset over the Vikings, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Broncos were way undervalued at +10.5. They were also coming off their bye week and facing a Minnesota team that was primed for a letdown with their bye on deck and fresh off two huge prime time games against the Chiefs and Cowboys.
The biggest thing for me and jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week is how they lost that game to the Vikings. I don’t care how big of a dog you are, losing a game you lead by 20-points at the half and by 16 going into the 4th quarter is one that is extremely difficult to bounce back. I think it’s that much harder when you have to go on the road against a hungry Bills team that desperately needs to win this game with their next 4 games against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. Not to mention that loss to the Vikings was one the Broncos had to have to have any shot at getting back in the AFC playoff race.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Denver came out and played their worst game of the season on Sunday. Give me the Bills -3.5!