The Denver Broncos (2-1) are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) on Monday Night Football in Week 4. Kickoff is set for 8:15 EST at Mile High and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Chiefs as a 4.5-point road favorite. It’s still at 4.5 at some places, but I also see some books with KC at -4 and other with the Chiefs -5, so be sure to shop around before betting this one. The total has been set at 55.5 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 4 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
Chiefs vs Broncos Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview
Kansas City continued their impressive start to the 2018 season with a 38-27 win at home over the 49ers as a 6-point favorite. The Chiefs offense scored 5 touchdowns on their first 5 possessions of the game and went into the half leading 35-10. Pat Mahomes continued to light it up, throwing for 314 yards and 3 scores.
Denver enters off a 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point favorite, spoiling their attempt at a 3-0 start to the season. The Broncos had an early 14-7 lead in the 1st quarter, but the offense went ice-cold and wouldn’t score the rest of the game. It was a rough day at the offense for new Denver quarterback, Case Keenum, as he threw for just 192 yards, was sacked 3 times and threw a pick.
It wasn’t that long ago the Broncos owns the Chiefs, but it’s been all Kansas City of late. The Chiefs have won 5 straight over the Broncos, including 3 in a row at Denver.
NFL Betting Predictions & Free ATS Pick: Chiefs -4
I would have to lean towards laying the points with Kansas City in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.
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The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.
Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.
The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.
They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -4