The Cleveland Browns (0-1-1) will host the New York Jets (1-1) on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 3 of NFL action. Kickoff for this game is set for 8:20 EST at FirstEnergy Stadium and will be televised on the NFL Network.

Taking a look at the Week 3 NFL odds, the books opened up the Browns as a 3-point home favorite with a total of 39 points. The number is still sitting at 3 at most books, but the juice is heavy on the -3.

Jets vs Browns Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds

After their impressive 48-17 win and cover as a 7-point road dog against the Lions in Week 1, the Jets laid an egg at home against a division rival. New York lost 20-12 to the Dolphins. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 334 yards, but had just 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. The Jets had 3 turnovers overall. Two resulted in touchdown drives for Miami and the other was a Darnold interception on 1st and 10 from the Dolphins 12-yard line, just one play after Miami fumbled.

The Browns managed to overcome a 14-point 4th quarter deficit in a 21-21 tie in Week 1 vs the Steelers. In Week 2 they blew a 12-3 4th quarter lead in a 21-18 loss to the Saints. Cleveland did cover for a second straight week, as they were a massive 9-point dog to New Orleans. Kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two field goals and two extra points, which cost the Browns the game and to no surprise he’s no longer on the roster.

These two teams met in Week 5 of last year. The Jets won the contest 17-14 as a 1.5-point road dog, giving them back-to-back close wins over the Browns. New York won 31-28 as a 2.5-point road dog at Cleveland in 2016. Overall the Jets have won 5 straight in the series with the Browns last win coming in December of 2007.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 39

If I had to take a side here I would lean towards laying the field goal with the Browns, but I could see this one going either way. My strongest lean in this one would be on the OVER 39 with the total. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.

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While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.

The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.

You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.

We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.